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Weekly market commentary | BlackRock Investment Institute

Stay tuned for insights on hot topics and latest trends in the financial market via the Weekly commentary by the BlackRock Investment Institute.

blackrock.com 09-21-26

Gold steadies above $4,300 as oil eases and ...

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U.S. Stocks Rally as AI Shares Surge and Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears U.S. stocks traded sharply higher Monday,

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US

U.S. Stocks Rally as AI Shares Surge and Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

U.S. stocks traded sharply higher Monday, led by technology shares as falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields improved risk sentiment.

The S&P 500 rose 0.95% to 7,723.01, while the Dow Jones gained 0.43% to 51,903.85. The Nasdaq outperformed with a 1.53% advance to 26,927.20.

Technology and AI-related stocks were the main drivers of the rally. Chipmakers including AMD, Intel and Micron posted strong gains, while Meta also advanced as investors returned to AI-related names after last week’s concerns over the pace of artificial-intelligence development eased.

The broader market also benefited from a sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent fell back toward $100 a barrel as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased, helping reduce inflation pressure and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield below 5%.

Improving U.S.-China sentiment added to the positive backdrop, with investors looking ahead to high-level discussions covering trade, technology and AI.

For now, the combination of lower energy prices, easing bond yields and renewed enthusiasm for AI is supporting a broad risk-on move, with the Nasdaq clearly leading the major U.S. indexes.
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U.S. Stocks Slip as Weak Industrial Data and Higher Yields Offset Fed-Driven Optimism

U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Friday as investors weighed softer economic data against lingering confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting stance.

The S&P 500 fell 0.20% to 7,622.67, while the Dow Jones declined 0.34% to 51,602.07. The Nasdaq was down 0.13% at 26,383.07, giving back part of its earlier gains.

The session followed Thursday’s rally, when falling oil prices and lower long-term Treasury yields helped investors respond positively to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate increase. The central bank raised its benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high, reinforcing confidence that the Fed is prepared to act against persistent price pressures.

Friday’s economic data were less supportive. U.S. industrial production was unchanged in August, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, while manufacturing output fell 0.3% after seven consecutive monthly gains. The U.S. Leading Index also declined 0.1%, pointing to some moderation in near-term economic momentum.

At the same time, Treasury yields remained an important headwind. The 10-year yield has recently traded near 5%, keeping pressure on equity valuations, particularly in growth-sensitive sectors. Brent crude’s retreat below $100 has helped ease some inflation concerns, but investors remain focused on whether the Fed will deliver another rate increase later this year.

For now, Wall Street appears caught between confidence in the Fed’s inflation response and concern that tighter monetary policy, high yields and slowing industrial momentum could weigh on growth.
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U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise 0.3% in August as GDPNow Holds at 5.1%

U.S. pending home sales rose 0.3% month over month in August, beating expectations for a 0.2% decline and rebounding from a 2.6% drop in the previous month.

The stronger reading suggests some stabilization in housing demand despite elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability pressures. Pending home sales track signed contracts and are often viewed as a leading indicator for future existing-home sales.

Separately, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model kept its estimate for third-quarter U.S. economic growth unchanged at 5.1%.

Together, the data point to continued resilience in the U.S. economy. Housing demand showed a modest improvement, while the GDPNow estimate continued to signal strong overall growth momentum in the third quarter.
U.S. Stocks Rally as Fed Rate Hike Boosts Confidence in Inflation Fight

U.S. stocks opened sharply higher Thursday, with investors responding positively to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and signs that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation under control.

The S&P 500 rose 0.93% to 7,621.95, while the Dow Jones gained 0.52% to 51,730.65. The Nasdaq led the advance, climbing 1.28% to 26,312.06 as technology shares attracted renewed buying.

The gains followed Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range. Although the move was widely expected, the unanimous decision under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appeared to strengthen investor confidence that the central bank is prepared to address persistent inflation pressures.

Sentiment was also supported by a pullback in oil prices, easing some concerns that high energy costs could add further inflation pressure. Reuters reported that U.S. stock futures had already moved higher before the opening bell as lower crude prices reinforced the positive reaction to the Fed decision.

Still, the Fed maintained a hawkish stance, with most policymakers indicating that another rate increase could be appropriate before the end of the year. For now, however, markets appear to be focusing on the credibility of the Fed’s inflation response.
U.S. Housing Starts Fall in August While Philadelphia Manufacturing Beats Forecast

U.S. housing activity weakened in August, with housing starts falling 2.6% month over month to an annualized 1.275 million units. The headline figure came below the 1.320 million market forecast, pointing to continued pressure on residential construction.

Building permits, a forward-looking indicator for future construction, came in at 1.394 million, slightly below expectations of 1.400 million.

At the same time, manufacturing data were stronger. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index registered 37.8 in September, beating the 31.3 consensus estimate, although it slowed from 47.4 previously.

The data present a mixed picture for the U.S. economy: housing remains under pressure from elevated borrowing costs and affordability constraints, while regional manufacturing activity continues to show relatively strong expansion.
U.S. Jobless Claims Fall Below Forecast as Labor Market Remains Resilient

U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 in the latest week, below the 207,000 market forecast and down from 206,000 previously, pointing to continued strength in the labor market.

Continuing claims also declined to 1.730 million, compared with expectations for 1.780 million and a previous reading of 1.769 million. The drop suggests fewer workers remained on unemployment benefits than economists had anticipated.

However, regional employment data showed some cooling. The Philadelphia Fed Employment Index fell to 11.8 in September from 27.9 previously, indicating that hiring momentum in the region slowed despite remaining in positive territory.

Overall, the claims data suggest layoffs remain relatively limited, while the weaker Philadelphia Fed employment reading points to some moderation in labor demand. The combination could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to watch labor-market conditions closely after its latest rate increase.
Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates to 4.00%

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Wednesday, matching market expectations and reversing the previous 3.75% rate level.

The increase comes as the Fed confronts renewed inflation pressures, with policymakers balancing persistent price risks against the potential impact of tighter financial conditions on economic growth.

The widely expected move shifts investor attention to the Fed’s policy statement and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for clues about the path ahead.

Markets will be particularly focused on whether Warsh signals that additional rate increases may be needed or suggests that policy could remain at 4.00% while officials assess incoming inflation and labor-market data. Warsh is scheduled to hold the post-meeting press conference following today’s FOMC decision.

The decision also puts Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and rate-sensitive equity sectors in focus as investors reassess expectations for monetary policy through the remainder of 2026.
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U.S. Stocks Rise as Tech Gains Offset Fed Rate Concerns After Strong Retail Sales

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.37% to 7,613.62 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.69% to 26,160.05. The Dow Jones was nearly flat, slipping 0.08% to 52,048.87, as technology stocks led the market higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

Fresh economic data showed that U.S. consumers remain surprisingly resilient. Retail sales jumped 1.2% month over month in August, beating the 0.8% forecast and reversing July’s 0.5% decline. Core retail sales were even stronger, rising 1.4% versus the 0.6% expected. The data adds to evidence that the U.S. economy continues to carry solid momentum.

The strength of consumer spending also complicates the interest-rate outlook. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points later Wednesday, as policymakers confront persistent inflation and the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, which recently crossed 5% and reached its highest level since 2007, eased to around 4.97%, providing some relief for growth and technology stocks.

Oil prices also pulled back after their recent surge, with Brent falling around 1.5% today.

Investors are now focused on the Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on whether an expected rate increase represents a one-time response to renewed inflation pressures or the beginning of a broader tightening cycle.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as 10-Year Yield Hits 5% and Oil Fuels Fed Hike Fears

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as surging Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions outweighed signs of continued job creation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.96%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.58% and the S&P 500 lost 0.44%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007 as investors prepared for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Economic data offered a mixed picture. Weekly ADP employment growth accelerated to 16,300 from 12,000, suggesting the labor market continues to add jobs. However, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to 7.6 in September from 20.6, well below the 14.8 forecast.

Geopolitical risks remain another major headwind. Oil prices have stayed above $100 as renewed attacks involving Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia increased concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Higher energy prices are reinforcing inflation fears.

With bond yields around 5% increasing the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets and putting pressure on equity valuations, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the Fed decision and its guidance on whether additional rate hikes could follow.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Oil Surge, Inflation Fears and AI Selloff Pressure Wall Street

U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday as a renewed surge in oil prices intensified inflation concerns while a selloff in artificial intelligence stocks weighed heavily on the technology sector.

The S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,619.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.23% to 52,454.22. The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed, dropping 0.73% to 26,140.28.

Brent crude jumped more than 4% to around $109 a barrel, adding to concerns that elevated energy costs could keep inflation higher for longer. Those worries are particularly important ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, with markets pricing a high probability of another rate increase after recent inflation data.

Technology shares faced an additional headwind from a reassessment of the AI boom. AI-linked stocks came under pressure after leading industry executives called for slowing the development of increasingly powerful AI models over safety concerns. Nvidia and several semiconductor stocks fell, helping explain the Nasdaq’s sharper decline.

The combination of higher oil prices, renewed inflation risks and uncertainty over the pace of AI investment is putting pressure on equity valuations, particularly high-growth technology stocks.
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S&P 500

Weekly market commentary | BlackRock Investment Institute

Stay tuned for insights on hot topics and latest trends in the financial market via the Weekly commentary by the BlackRock Investment Institute.

(blackrock.com)
U.S. Stocks Rally as AI Shares Surge and Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

U.S. stocks traded sharply higher Monday, led by technology shares as falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields improved risk sentiment.

The S&P 500 rose 0.95% to 7,723.01, while the Dow Jones gained 0.43% to 51,903.85. The Nasdaq outperformed with a 1.53% advance to 26,927.20.

Technology and AI-related stocks were the main drivers of the rally. Chipmakers including AMD, Intel and Micron posted strong gains, while Meta also advanced as investors returned to AI-related names after last week’s concerns over the pace of artificial-intelligence development eased.

The broader market also benefited from a sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent fell back toward $100 a barrel as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased, helping reduce inflation pressure and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield below 5%.

Improving U.S.-China sentiment added to the positive backdrop, with investors looking ahead to high-level discussions covering trade, technology and AI.

For now, the combination of lower energy prices, easing bond yields and renewed enthusiasm for AI is supporting a broad risk-on move, with the Nasdaq clearly leading the major U.S. indexes.
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U.S. Stocks Slip as Weak Industrial Data and Higher Yields Offset Fed-Driven Optimism

U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Friday as investors weighed softer economic data against lingering confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting stance.

The S&P 500 fell 0.20% to 7,622.67, while the Dow Jones declined 0.34% to 51,602.07. The Nasdaq was down 0.13% at 26,383.07, giving back part of its earlier gains.

The session followed Thursday’s rally, when falling oil prices and lower long-term Treasury yields helped investors respond positively to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate increase. The central bank raised its benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high, reinforcing confidence that the Fed is prepared to act against persistent price pressures.

Friday’s economic data were less supportive. U.S. industrial production was unchanged in August, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, while manufacturing output fell 0.3% after seven consecutive monthly gains. The U.S. Leading Index also declined 0.1%, pointing to some moderation in near-term economic momentum.

At the same time, Treasury yields remained an important headwind. The 10-year yield has recently traded near 5%, keeping pressure on equity valuations, particularly in growth-sensitive sectors. Brent crude’s retreat below $100 has helped ease some inflation concerns, but investors remain focused on whether the Fed will deliver another rate increase later this year.

For now, Wall Street appears caught between confidence in the Fed’s inflation response and concern that tighter monetary policy, high yields and slowing industrial momentum could weigh on growth.
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U.S. Stocks Rally as Technology Leads Broad Market Gains

U.S. stocks traded firmly higher Thursday, with the S&P 500 up 1.09% as investors extended the positive reaction to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision.

Technology led the advance, with the S&P 500 Information Technology sector rising 2.10%. Consumer Discretionary gained 1.63%, while Utilities, Materials and Real Estate also posted solid gains.

The broad participation suggests investors were not only buying growth stocks but also rotating into rate-sensitive sectors. The market’s strength comes after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Wednesday, a move that appears to have increased confidence that policymakers are taking inflation risks seriously while avoiding a more aggressive tightening step.

Most sectors were higher, with Health Care up 0.47%, Industrials up 0.40%, Communication Services up 0.25% and Financials up 0.16%. Energy was nearly flat, while Consumer Staples was the only sector in negative territory, down 0.21%.

The strong performance in technology and discretionary shares indicates improving risk appetite, while gains in utilities and real estate suggest investors are also responding positively to the broader interest-rate outlook.
U.S. Stocks Rally as Fed Rate Hike Boosts Confidence in Inflation Fight

U.S. stocks opened sharply higher Thursday, with investors responding positively to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and signs that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation under control.

The S&P 500 rose 0.93% to 7,621.95, while the Dow Jones gained 0.52% to 51,730.65. The Nasdaq led the advance, climbing 1.28% to 26,312.06 as technology shares attracted renewed buying.

The gains followed Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range. Although the move was widely expected, the unanimous decision under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appeared to strengthen investor confidence that the central bank is prepared to address persistent inflation pressures.

Sentiment was also supported by a pullback in oil prices, easing some concerns that high energy costs could add further inflation pressure. Reuters reported that U.S. stock futures had already moved higher before the opening bell as lower crude prices reinforced the positive reaction to the Fed decision.

Still, the Fed maintained a hawkish stance, with most policymakers indicating that another rate increase could be appropriate before the end of the year. For now, however, markets appear to be focusing on the credibility of the Fed’s inflation response.
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U.S. Stocks Rise as Tech Gains Offset Fed Rate Concerns After Strong Retail Sales

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.37% to 7,613.62 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.69% to 26,160.05. The Dow Jones was nearly flat, slipping 0.08% to 52,048.87, as technology stocks led the market higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

Fresh economic data showed that U.S. consumers remain surprisingly resilient. Retail sales jumped 1.2% month over month in August, beating the 0.8% forecast and reversing July’s 0.5% decline. Core retail sales were even stronger, rising 1.4% versus the 0.6% expected. The data adds to evidence that the U.S. economy continues to carry solid momentum.

The strength of consumer spending also complicates the interest-rate outlook. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points later Wednesday, as policymakers confront persistent inflation and the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, which recently crossed 5% and reached its highest level since 2007, eased to around 4.97%, providing some relief for growth and technology stocks.

Oil prices also pulled back after their recent surge, with Brent falling around 1.5% today.

Investors are now focused on the Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on whether an expected rate increase represents a one-time response to renewed inflation pressures or the beginning of a broader tightening cycle.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as 10-Year Yield Hits 5% and Oil Fuels Fed Hike Fears

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as surging Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions outweighed signs of continued job creation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.96%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.58% and the S&P 500 lost 0.44%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007 as investors prepared for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Economic data offered a mixed picture. Weekly ADP employment growth accelerated to 16,300 from 12,000, suggesting the labor market continues to add jobs. However, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to 7.6 in September from 20.6, well below the 14.8 forecast.

Geopolitical risks remain another major headwind. Oil prices have stayed above $100 as renewed attacks involving Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia increased concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Higher energy prices are reinforcing inflation fears.

With bond yields around 5% increasing the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets and putting pressure on equity valuations, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the Fed decision and its guidance on whether additional rate hikes could follow.
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S&P 500 Slips as Tech and Industrials Weigh, Communication Services Leads

U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Monday afternoon, with the S&P 500 down 0.24% at 7,638.81 around 1:43 p.m. EDT, as weakness in technology and industrial shares offset strong gains in communication services and health care.

The session showed a sharp divergence across sectors. Communication Services led the S&P 500 with a 2.77% gain, followed by Health Care at 1.39% and Consumer Staples at 1.33%. At the other end, Industrials fell 1.54%, Utilities dropped 1.12%, and Information Technology declined 1.08%.

Technology remained under pressure after calls from leading AI executives to slow development of the most advanced AI models raised questions about the pace of AI infrastructure investment. Semiconductor stocks were particularly exposed, while some large software and internet companies benefited from a rotation within technology-related shares.

Broader sentiment was also pressured by elevated oil prices and Treasury yields. Brent crude traded above $108 following additional Middle East supply disruptions, while the 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached 5%, intensifying inflation concerns. Markets are now pricing a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week following hotter U.S. inflation data.

Despite these pressures, the S&P 500 had recovered substantially from its intraday lows by early afternoon, suggesting that strength in defensive sectors and selected mega-cap stocks was helping limit the broader market decline.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Oil Surge, Inflation Fears and AI Selloff Pressure Wall Street

U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday as a renewed surge in oil prices intensified inflation concerns while a selloff in artificial intelligence stocks weighed heavily on the technology sector.

The S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,619.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.23% to 52,454.22. The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed, dropping 0.73% to 26,140.28.

Brent crude jumped more than 4% to around $109 a barrel, adding to concerns that elevated energy costs could keep inflation higher for longer. Those worries are particularly important ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, with markets pricing a high probability of another rate increase after recent inflation data.

Technology shares faced an additional headwind from a reassessment of the AI boom. AI-linked stocks came under pressure after leading industry executives called for slowing the development of increasingly powerful AI models over safety concerns. Nvidia and several semiconductor stocks fell, helping explain the Nasdaq’s sharper decline.

The combination of higher oil prices, renewed inflation risks and uncertainty over the pace of AI investment is putting pressure on equity valuations, particularly high-growth technology stocks.

Treasury Yields Are Climbing. Can Stocks Hold Their Ground?

Rising Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and weakening small caps put pressure on stocks. Here's what investors should watch next.

(articles.stockcharts.com)
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Gold

Gold steadies above $4,300 as oil eases and yields stay high - Kitco AM Report | Kitco News

Gold steadies above $4,300 as oil eases and ...

(kitco.com)
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Gold and Bitcoin Rise as Investors Seek Safety and Risk Exposure After Fed Decision

Gold and Bitcoin moved higher Friday, with both assets benefiting from shifting expectations around inflation, interest rates and broader market risk sentiment.

December gold futures rose 0.60% to about $4,426 an ounce, extending gains as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase and the outlook for inflation. Gold remained supported by demand for defensive assets, even as oil prices retreated and some immediate geopolitical supply concerns eased.

Bitcoin climbed 2.13% to around $78,019, recovering further from recent weakness. The cryptocurrency moved steadily higher through the session and briefly approached $78,500 as risk appetite improved.

The moves reflect different parts of the same macro environment. Gold is benefiting from continued demand for inflation protection and safe-haven exposure, while Bitcoin is drawing support from stronger appetite for higher-risk assets and renewed interest in crypto after the Fed’s policy decision reduced some uncertainty around the near-term rate outlook.

For both markets, the next major drivers are likely to be U.S. inflation data, Treasury yields, the dollar and any further signals from Federal Reserve officials about the possibility of additional rate increases.

Gold price holding near session highs as US pending home sales rise 0.3% | Kitco News

Gold price holding near session highs as ...

(kitco.com)
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Gold Rises Nearly 1% as Treasury Yields and Dollar Ease Ahead of Fed Decision

Gold prices moved higher Wednesday, with December futures rising 0.98% to around $4,375 an ounce, recovering after recent pressure as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision later in the day.

The rebound was supported by a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield had climbed above 5% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007, before easing Wednesday. Lower yields improve the relative appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and bitcoin.

Oil prices also retreated after their recent surge, easing some concerns that higher energy costs could intensify inflation. Markets nevertheless continue to expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points, making the central bank’s guidance on the path of future rates particularly important for gold.

Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to provide some safe-haven support. For gold, the immediate focus is now on whether the Fed’s message pushes Treasury yields and the dollar higher again.
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Gold Slides as Treasury Yields Surge, While Oil Rally Fuels Fed Rate-Hike Bets

Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday as surging U.S. Treasury yields and growing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike outweighed safe-haven demand generated by geopolitical tensions.

December gold futures dropped 1.13% to around $4,302.60 an ounce. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Oil prices are adding to the pressure. Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel, futures up 1.76% at $102.77. Escalating Middle East tensions and risks to energy infrastructure have intensified concerns that elevated oil prices could keep inflation persistent.

Those concerns have dramatically shifted expectations for this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now pricing roughly a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase, compared with much lower expectations before the latest inflation and energy-price developments.

The combination of higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields and increasingly hawkish Fed expectations is currently overpowering gold’s traditional geopolitical safe-haven support. Investors will now focus on Wednesday’s Fed decision and, particularly, signals about whether further rate increases could follow.

The next trillion matters more for gold than the next Fed rate hike | Kitco News

The next trillion matters more for gold than the next Fed rate hike
...

(kitco.com)
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Gold and Bitcoin End Volatile Week Lower as Fed Rate-Hike Expectations Rise

Gold and Bitcoin came under pressure this week as surging Treasury yields, persistent U.S. inflation and sharply higher oil prices strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September meeting.

Gold December futures finished Friday at $4,408.90 per ounce, nearly unchanged on the day but down about 1.8% over five sessions. Spot gold lost roughly 1.5% for the week, marking a third consecutive weekly decline. Rising bond yields were the main headwind, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approaching 5% as investors repriced the interest-rate outlook. (Reuters)

Inflation remained central to the selloff. August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and 3.4% annually, while core prices increased 0.3%. Markets ended the week pricing an approximately 87% probability of a Fed rate increase next week. Gold nevertheless attracted dip-buying on Friday, while geopolitical uncertainty continued to provide some safe-haven support. (Reuters)

Bitcoin followed a similar risk-off pattern, falling about 2.3% over five days to around $77,300. The cryptocurrency briefly approached $80,000 before retreating toward $77,000 as higher yields reduced investor appetite for non-yielding and higher-risk assets.

Oil added another layer of pressure. Brent gained more than 8% for the week despite retreating Friday to $104.61, as Middle East supply disruptions kept inflation concerns elevated.

Next week’s Federal Reserve decision is therefore the key catalyst for both assets. A rate hike accompanied by a hawkish outlook could keep gold and Bitcoin under pressure, while a less aggressive Fed message and a retreat in Treasury yields could provide room for a rebound.
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Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Fall as Higher Yields Keep Pressure on Alternative Assets

Gold, silver and Bitcoin traded lower Friday as elevated Treasury yields and persistent uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook continued to weigh on non-yielding and risk-sensitive assets.

December gold futures fell 0.51% to $4,384.70 an ounce, although prices recovered substantially from an intraday low near $4,350. December silver declined 0.66% to $64.50 an ounce after also rebounding from earlier losses.

Bitcoin was down 1.04% over the past 24 hours at around $77,151. The cryptocurrency briefly fell toward $76,500 before recovering, but remained well below the $78,000 area seen earlier in the period.

The moves come after Thursday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. producer inflation data pushed Treasury yields sharply higher and revived concerns that the Fed could maintain a tighter policy stance. Meanwhile, oil prices remain above $100 a barrel despite Friday’s pullback, keeping energy-driven inflation risks in focus.

Investors are now turning their attention to Friday’s U.S. consumer inflation data, which could provide the next major signal for Treasury yields, the dollar, precious metals and Bitcoin ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Slide as Surging Treasury Yields Trigger Broad Selloff

Gold, silver and Bitcoin fell sharply Thursday as rising U.S. Treasury yields and renewed inflation concerns pressured both precious metals and cryptocurrencies.

December gold futures dropped 1.23% to $4,405.70 an ounce, while December silver futures plunged 4.98% to $65.23. Bitcoin fell 2.71% over 24 hours to around $77,016, briefly approaching $76,700.

The selloff came as the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to around 4.92%, its highest level since late 2023. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver and can also tighten financial conditions for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Inflation concerns intensified after August U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, slightly above the 5.3% annual forecast. At the same time, Brent crude surged above $104 a barrel as supply disruptions and a sharp decline in Saudi production heightened fears that energy costs could keep inflation elevated.

Silver significantly underperformed gold, reflecting its greater volatility and sensitivity to both investment flows and industrial demand. Bitcoin also came under pressure as higher bond yields reduced investors’ appetite for risk.

Markets now turn to Friday’s U.S. CPI report. Another strong inflation reading could reinforce expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy and keep upward pressure on Treasury yields, creating further headwinds for precious metals and cryptocurrencies.
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Gold and Bitcoin Rise as Middle East Tensions Drive Volatility Across Markets

Gold and Bitcoin moved higher Wednesday as escalating Middle East tensions, oil prices above $100 and renewed inflation concerns drove volatility across global markets.

December gold futures rose 0.77% to $4,473.10 per ounce, extending an intraday rebound as investors sought traditional safe-haven assets. Spot gold was also higher on the day as global equities declined.

Geopolitical risk remains a major catalyst. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since July as renewed U.S.-Iran attacks, strikes on tankers and attacks on Saudi energy facilities intensified concerns over Middle East oil supplies. Brent reached an intraday high of $100.90, while flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply.

Bitcoin also advanced, rising 1.76% over the past 24 hours to around $79,303 after trading below $78,000 earlier in the period. The cryptocurrency’s recovery came despite pressure on U.S. equities and rising Treasury yields, suggesting some improvement in crypto risk appetite.

However, higher oil prices create a competing risk for both assets. The energy surge is increasing inflation concerns and strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.81%, near a three-year high, as markets await producer and consumer inflation reports later this week.

Gold is currently benefiting more directly from safe-haven demand, while Bitcoin remains sensitive to the outlook for interest rates and broader risk sentiment. Upcoming U.S. inflation data could therefore be the next major catalyst for both markets.
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Dow Jones Industrial

U.S. Stocks Rally as AI Shares Surge and Falling Oil Prices Ease Inflation Fears

U.S. stocks traded sharply higher Monday, led by technology shares as falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields improved risk sentiment.

The S&P 500 rose 0.95% to 7,723.01, while the Dow Jones gained 0.43% to 51,903.85. The Nasdaq outperformed with a 1.53% advance to 26,927.20.

Technology and AI-related stocks were the main drivers of the rally. Chipmakers including AMD, Intel and Micron posted strong gains, while Meta also advanced as investors returned to AI-related names after last week’s concerns over the pace of artificial-intelligence development eased.

The broader market also benefited from a sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent fell back toward $100 a barrel as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased, helping reduce inflation pressure and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield below 5%.

Improving U.S.-China sentiment added to the positive backdrop, with investors looking ahead to high-level discussions covering trade, technology and AI.

For now, the combination of lower energy prices, easing bond yields and renewed enthusiasm for AI is supporting a broad risk-on move, with the Nasdaq clearly leading the major U.S. indexes.
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U.S. Stocks Slip as Weak Industrial Data and Higher Yields Offset Fed-Driven Optimism

U.S. stocks traded modestly lower Friday as investors weighed softer economic data against lingering confidence in the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting stance.

The S&P 500 fell 0.20% to 7,622.67, while the Dow Jones declined 0.34% to 51,602.07. The Nasdaq was down 0.13% at 26,383.07, giving back part of its earlier gains.

The session followed Thursday’s rally, when falling oil prices and lower long-term Treasury yields helped investors respond positively to the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate increase. The central bank raised its benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%, and Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high, reinforcing confidence that the Fed is prepared to act against persistent price pressures.

Friday’s economic data were less supportive. U.S. industrial production was unchanged in August, missing expectations for a 0.3% increase, while manufacturing output fell 0.3% after seven consecutive monthly gains. The U.S. Leading Index also declined 0.1%, pointing to some moderation in near-term economic momentum.

At the same time, Treasury yields remained an important headwind. The 10-year yield has recently traded near 5%, keeping pressure on equity valuations, particularly in growth-sensitive sectors. Brent crude’s retreat below $100 has helped ease some inflation concerns, but investors remain focused on whether the Fed will deliver another rate increase later this year.

For now, Wall Street appears caught between confidence in the Fed’s inflation response and concern that tighter monetary policy, high yields and slowing industrial momentum could weigh on growth.
U.S. Stocks Rally as Fed Rate Hike Boosts Confidence in Inflation Fight

U.S. stocks opened sharply higher Thursday, with investors responding positively to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision and signs that policymakers remain committed to bringing inflation under control.

The S&P 500 rose 0.93% to 7,621.95, while the Dow Jones gained 0.52% to 51,730.65. The Nasdaq led the advance, climbing 1.28% to 26,312.06 as technology shares attracted renewed buying.

The gains followed Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% range. Although the move was widely expected, the unanimous decision under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appeared to strengthen investor confidence that the central bank is prepared to address persistent inflation pressures.

Sentiment was also supported by a pullback in oil prices, easing some concerns that high energy costs could add further inflation pressure. Reuters reported that U.S. stock futures had already moved higher before the opening bell as lower crude prices reinforced the positive reaction to the Fed decision.

Still, the Fed maintained a hawkish stance, with most policymakers indicating that another rate increase could be appropriate before the end of the year. For now, however, markets appear to be focusing on the credibility of the Fed’s inflation response.
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U.S. Stocks Rise as Tech Gains Offset Fed Rate Concerns After Strong Retail Sales

U.S. stocks traded mostly higher Wednesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.37% to 7,613.62 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.69% to 26,160.05. The Dow Jones was nearly flat, slipping 0.08% to 52,048.87, as technology stocks led the market higher ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

Fresh economic data showed that U.S. consumers remain surprisingly resilient. Retail sales jumped 1.2% month over month in August, beating the 0.8% forecast and reversing July’s 0.5% decline. Core retail sales were even stronger, rising 1.4% versus the 0.6% expected. The data adds to evidence that the U.S. economy continues to carry solid momentum.

The strength of consumer spending also complicates the interest-rate outlook. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points later Wednesday, as policymakers confront persistent inflation and the inflationary impact of higher energy prices. The 10-year Treasury yield, which recently crossed 5% and reached its highest level since 2007, eased to around 4.97%, providing some relief for growth and technology stocks.

Oil prices also pulled back after their recent surge, with Brent falling around 1.5% today.

Investors are now focused on the Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments for clues on whether an expected rate increase represents a one-time response to renewed inflation pressures or the beginning of a broader tightening cycle.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as 10-Year Yield Hits 5% and Oil Fuels Fed Hike Fears

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as surging Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions outweighed signs of continued job creation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.96%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.58% and the S&P 500 lost 0.44%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007 as investors prepared for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Markets are pricing a roughly 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Economic data offered a mixed picture. Weekly ADP employment growth accelerated to 16,300 from 12,000, suggesting the labor market continues to add jobs. However, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index dropped to 7.6 in September from 20.6, well below the 14.8 forecast.

Geopolitical risks remain another major headwind. Oil prices have stayed above $100 as renewed attacks involving Iran-aligned Houthis and Saudi Arabia increased concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Higher energy prices are reinforcing inflation fears.

With bond yields around 5% increasing the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets and putting pressure on equity valuations, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the Fed decision and its guidance on whether additional rate hikes could follow.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Oil Surge, Inflation Fears and AI Selloff Pressure Wall Street

U.S. stocks opened lower on Monday as a renewed surge in oil prices intensified inflation concerns while a selloff in artificial intelligence stocks weighed heavily on the technology sector.

The S&P 500 fell 0.49% to 7,619.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.23% to 52,454.22. The tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed, dropping 0.73% to 26,140.28.

Brent crude jumped more than 4% to around $109 a barrel, adding to concerns that elevated energy costs could keep inflation higher for longer. Those worries are particularly important ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, with markets pricing a high probability of another rate increase after recent inflation data.

Technology shares faced an additional headwind from a reassessment of the AI boom. AI-linked stocks came under pressure after leading industry executives called for slowing the development of increasingly powerful AI models over safety concerns. Nvidia and several semiconductor stocks fell, helping explain the Nasdaq’s sharper decline.

The combination of higher oil prices, renewed inflation risks and uncertainty over the pace of AI investment is putting pressure on equity valuations, particularly high-growth technology stocks.
U.S. Stock Futures Jump After CPI Data as Oracle Rally and Oil Pullback Lift Sentiment

U.S. stock futures moved sharply higher Friday after August inflation data came broadly in line with expectations, while a pullback in oil prices and strong Oracle earnings helped improve sentiment. S&P 500 futures rose 0.92%, Dow futures gained 0.94%, and Nasdaq futures advanced 1.06%.

Headline CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in August, matching expectations but accelerating from 0.1% in July. Annual inflation held at 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month, slightly above the 0.2% forecast, while the annual core rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5%. The mixed report leaves inflation concerns alive ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, particularly after Thursday’s hotter producer-price data.

Energy markets provided some relief. Brent crude fell about 3% to around $104 a barrel after briefly approaching $110, although it remains up strongly for the week. Reports of diplomatic efforts to establish temporary shipping arrangements through the Strait of Hormuz helped cool prices. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated as the U.S.-Iran conflict and attacks on regional shipping continue to restrict oil flows.

Technology stocks were also supported by Oracle, which jumped about 6% in premarket trading after reporting a 30% increase in Q1 revenue to $19.3 billion. Cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121% to $7.4 billion, while remaining performance obligations reached $664 billion amid strong AI demand.

Despite the equity rebound, bond yields remain a key risk. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.94%, leaving markets sensitive to inflation, oil prices and changing expectations for the Fed’s September decision.
U.S. Stocks Fall as Hot PPI, Surging Oil and Treasury Yields Pressure Markets

U.S. stocks traded lower Thursday as stronger producer inflation, surging oil prices and rising Treasury yields renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.82% to 26,038.95, while the S&P 500 declined 0.52% to 7,596.27 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.24% to 52,256.80.

August producer prices rose 0.4% month over month, matching expectations but accelerating from July. Annual PPI climbed 5.4%, above the 5.3% forecast and up from 4.8%. Core PPI provided some relief, increasing 0.2% month over month versus the 0.3% expected.

Oil extended its surge Thursday, with Brent crude futures jumping 3.5% to $104.75 a barrel. Supply concerns intensified after Saudi Arabia’s August production reportedly plunged 23% to about 6.2 million barrels per day, its lowest level since 1990, as regional conflict disrupted export routes (Financial Times).

Bond markets reacted sharply to the combination of inflation and energy concerns. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.922%, up roughly 8 basis points on the session. Higher yields weighed particularly heavily on technology and other growth stocks, helping explain the Nasdaq’s underperformance.

With Brent now above $104 and producer inflation accelerating, investors face the risk that the energy shock could keep inflation elevated for longer. Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. CPI report, which could play a decisive role in expectations for next week’s Federal Reserve decision.
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U.S. Stocks Open Lower as Oil Tops $100 and Inflation Concerns Persist

U.S. stocks opened lower Wednesday, extending the previous session’s losses as sharply higher oil prices fueled concerns over inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.55% to 52,497.96, while the S&P 500 declined 0.32% to 7,648.70. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.34% to 26,331.54.

Higher oil prices were a key source of pressure. Brent crude climbed above $100 per barrel for the first time since July as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure increased concerns about prolonged Middle East supply disruptions. Brent was recently up about 2.8% at $100.66, while WTI gained roughly 3% to $95.77.

The oil rally is adding to inflation concerns ahead of key U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. Higher energy costs could keep price pressures elevated and complicate the Fed’s interest-rate decision.

Meanwhile, the latest weekly ADP employment estimate showed private payrolls increasing by 12,000, up from the previous week’s 10,000 gain. The modest increase points to continued but relatively subdued hiring momentum.

With oil prices rising and bond yields remaining elevated, investors are increasingly focused on whether renewed energy-driven inflation will force the Fed to maintain a tighter monetary-policy stance.
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U.S. Stocks Fall as Rising Oil Prices and Fed Rate-Hike Fears Pressure Wall Street

U.S. stocks opened lower Tuesday as surging oil prices fueled renewed inflation concerns, while investors assessed escalating tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1.2% in morning trading, while the S&P 500 declined 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite lost roughly 0.5%.

Rising energy prices were a major source of pressure. Brent crude climbed toward the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level as the U.S.-Iran conflict escalated and concerns grew about further disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Higher crude prices present a broader problem for equities because sustained increases in energy costs could feed into inflation and make it more difficult for the Fed to ease monetary policy. The concern has intensified following Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, which pushed expectations toward tighter monetary policy.

Treasury yields also remained elevated, adding pressure to equity valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks.

Investors are now turning their attention to this week’s U.S. inflation reports. Hotter-than-expected inflation, particularly with oil prices approaching $100, could strengthen expectations for a September Fed rate hike and add further pressure to Wall Street.
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NASDAQ:SOFI

SoFi Stock Rises 4.4% as Scotiabank Initiates Coverage With Sector Outperform Rating

SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) shares rose about 4.4% Wednesday after Scotiabank initiated coverage of the fintech company with a Sector Outperform rating and set a $25 price target.

SoFi shares were trading around $17.81, meaning Scotiabank’s $25 target implies approximately 40% upside from the current share price.

SoFi has evolved from its origins in student loan refinancing into a diversified digital financial services platform spanning personal loans, banking, investing, credit cards and financial technology infrastructure. Its expanding financial-services ecosystem and growing banking operations position the company to benefit from the continued shift toward digital banking.

The Sector Outperform initiation provides a fresh bullish catalyst for the stock. The 4.4% gain appears to reflect positive investor reaction to Scotiabank’s coverage and the significant upside indicated by its $25 price target.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Tumbles 14% Despite Record Revenue

SoFi Technologies shares fell roughly 14% on Wednesday, a punishing reaction to an earnings report that was better than expected on the surface but left investors with plenty to worry about underneath.

The digital bank posted Q1 revenue of $1.1 billion, up 41% year-over-year, and record loan originations of $12.2 billion. Yet the stock sold off hard for three key reasons.

First, Galileo, SoFi's high-margin banking-as-a-service platform, saw revenue collapse 27% to $75 million, hit by the exit of major client Chime from the platform (24/7 Wall St.). Second, SoFi's Q2 guidance missed Wall Street's forecasts on both revenue growth and EBITDA margin, sparking concerns about the company's near-term trajectory (FinancialContent). Third, management left its full-year guidance unchanged — offering no upside surprise to a market that needed reassurance.

Adding to the pressure, a second Muddy Waters short report alleged accounting irregularities involving a $312 million JPMorgan loan, while TD Cowen slashed its price target to $17 from $24 and Bank of America cut its target to $18, both citing macro headwinds and competition (StocksToTrade).

At around $15.88 per share, SOFI now trades more than 50% below its 52-week high of $32.21 from November 2025 (FinancialContent).
SoFi Technologies reported a standout fourth quarter in 2025, delivering record adjusted net revenue of $1.0 billion, up 37% year over year, and net income of $174 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 60% to a record $318 million, while fee-based revenue jumped 53% to $443 million.

Growth remained strong across the platform, with members increasing 35% to a record 13.7 million and total products rising 37% to 20.2 million. Management highlighted continued momentum from its one-stop digital financial services model and announced 2026 guidance alongside a positive medium-term outlook.

Source: Business Wire, January 30, 2026
SoFi Launches $1.5 Billion Public Offering to Strengthen Capital and Support Growth

SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ: SOFI) has announced a $1.5 billion underwritten public offering of common stock, with underwriters receiving a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 15 percent. All shares will be issued and sold by the company. SoFi plans to use the proceeds to bolster its capital position, enhance flexibility in capital management, and fund future growth initiatives.

5 High-Growth US Fintech Stocks Riding the Digital Banking Boom - The Smart Investor

Ride the wave of digital banking with these five innovative US fintech stocks in 2025.

(thesmartinvestor.com.sg)
SoFi’s Q1 2025 earnings highlights:

- Net revenue: $772 million, up 20% year-over-year
- Adjusted net revenue: $771 million, up 33%
- Adjusted EBITDA: $210 million, up 46%
- GAAP net income: $71 million
- Diluted EPS: $0.06, up from $0.02 a year ago
- Member growth: 800,000 new members, reaching 10.9 million total, up 34% year-over-year
- Product growth: 1.2 million new products, reaching 15.9 million total, up 35%

Segment performance:

- Financial Services: revenue doubled to $303 million; contribution margin rose to 49%
- Technology Platform: revenue grew 10% to $103 million; contribution margin at 30%
- Lending: revenue rose 25% to $413 million; lending origination volume hit a record $7.2 billion, up 66%

Additional points:

- Fee-based revenue reached a record $315 million, up 67%
- Net interest income rose 24% year-over-year
- Tangible book value grew to $5.1 billion, or $4.58 per share
- Credit performance improved, with lower charge-off and delinquency rates
- Continued brand-building activities, including partnerships with TGL (stadium golf league) and CMA Fest
- New SoFi Plus subscription service launched

Updated 2025 guidance:

- Full-year adjusted net revenue expected at $3.235 to $3.310 billion (previously $3.200 to $3.275 billion)
- Full-year adjusted EBITDA expected at $875 to $895 million (previously $845 to $865 million)
- Full-year GAAP EPS expected at $0.27 to $0.28 (previously $0.25 to $0.27)
SoFi Technologies reported record performance in Q4 2024, with a net revenue of $734 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year increase, and net income of $332 million, a significant leap from $48 million in Q4 2023. The company's strong performance was driven by the Financial Services and Tech Platform segments, which combined grew 52% year-over-year and contributed 49% of total adjusted net revenue.

For 2024, SoFi achieved a GAAP profitability milestone with $2.7 billion in total net revenue, up 26% from the prior year, and a full-year net income of $499 million, compared to a loss of $301 million in 2023. Key drivers of growth included a 34% increase in members, a 32% increase in products, and a 63% rise in fee-based revenue.

In the Lending segment, loan originations reached $7.2 billion in Q4, a 66% year-over-year increase, with personal, student, and home loans posting record volumes. SoFi also reported improved credit performance, with personal loan delinquency and charge-off rates decreasing.

For 2025, SoFi projects adjusted net revenue growth of 23–26% and adjusted EBITDA between $845–$865 million. Management also plans to reinvest in the business, targeting an incremental EBITDA margin of 30%.
What is your expectations for Sofi in 2025?
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Copper

Copper: Not Just Tariffs | Gold News

Copper leapt to new record highs on US tariff fears. Or so it might seem if you ignore lower mine output and soaring costs >>

(bullionvault.com)

Copper Prices Outlook | J.P. Morgan Global Research

Copper prices have been volatile since the start of the Iran conflict, but macroeconomic risks are likely not yet fully priced in.

(jpmorgan.com)

Iran War Winners #2 and #3: Copper and Nickel - Fat Tail Daily

A sulphur squeeze in the Gulf, Indonesia slashing nickel quotas and an AI data‑centre arms spell big things for nickel and copper prices.

(daily.fattail.com.au)

Copper’s Bull Market Isn’t Dead — It’s Just on Sale - Fat Tail Daily

The panic is real, but so is the opportunity. Here’s why copper’s long-term bull case remains firmly intact.

(daily.fattail.com.au)

What Soaring Precious Metals Say About Inflation — And What They Don’t

Gold and silver are soaring, but inflation isn't where many expect. These charts reveal what's really driving prices in early 2026.

(articles.stockcharts.com)

Copper and Zinc: One ASX small cap that is benefitting - Fat Tail Daily

Rio–Glencore chase copper dominance as AI data centres and EVs supercharge demand, while an overlooked zinc play and one Aussie small cap quietly ride the same boom.

(daily.fattail.com.au)

Commodities Moving the Chains in Early 2026

Point & Figure charts are showing a breakout in broad commodities with a price target that suggests commodities have room to run. Here's a deep dive into the technical chart patterns that could support the run in commodities.

(articles.stockcharts.com)

Reflation Trade or Fed Takeover? - Fat Tail Daily

More commodities start to run as gold and silver explode higher. Small caps are also flying. But are they just playing catch-up to the Magnificent 7? Is it a sign of better growth ahead or just fears that the new US Fed Chairman will lower rates too far? Charlie and Murray assess the state of play as we head into 2026.

(daily.fattail.com.au)

Copper Prices Are Forecast to Decline Somewhat from Record Highs in 2026 | Goldman Sachs

Copper prices forecast to decline ...

(goldmansachs.com)

Retrospective Pt. 2 (Copper) - Fat Tail Daily

copper analysis ....

(daily.fattail.com.au)
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UK

UK House Prices Rebound in September as Monthly Asking Prices Rise 0.7%

UK house prices showed signs of improvement in September, with the Rightmove House Price Index rising 0.7% month over month after a 2.0% decline in August.

On an annual basis, asking prices were still 0.8% lower than a year earlier, but the decline narrowed from 1.0% previously.

The data suggest the housing market regained some momentum at the start of autumn, although year-over-year prices remain slightly below 2025 levels.

The monthly rebound may reflect seasonal improvement in housing activity, but affordability constraints and borrowing costs are likely to remain important factors for buyers and sellers in the coming months.
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UK Retail Sales Rebound Strongly in August, Beating Forecasts

UK retail sales rose more strongly than expected in August, pointing to an improvement in consumer spending after weakness in the previous month.

Headline retail sales increased 0.5% month over month, beating expectations for a 0.2% decline and rebounding from a 0.5% fall previously. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 2.4%, above the 1.9% forecast and up from 1.2% in the prior period.

Core retail sales, which exclude fuel, were also stronger than expected. Core sales increased 0.6% month over month versus expectations for a 0.2% decline, while annual core sales growth accelerated to 2.7% from 1.8%, exceeding the 1.9% consensus estimate.

Overall, the figures suggest UK household demand was more resilient in August than markets had expected, providing a positive signal for near-term economic activity despite continued pressure from borrowing costs and inflation.
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate Steady at 3.75%

The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% at its September meeting, matching market expectations and extending its current policy stance.
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UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% in August, Matching Expectations

UK consumer inflation accelerated in August, with the annual CPI rate rising to 3.1% from 2.9% in July, in line with market expectations.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.5%, also matching forecasts and accelerating from the previous month’s 0.3% rise.

The pickup indicates that inflationary pressures strengthened during August despite the figures coming in as expected. The data could reinforce a cautious approach from the Bank of England, as inflation remains above its 2% target and limits the scope for near-term monetary easing.
UK Jobless Claims Jump in August, Unemployment Rate Holds at 4.9%

The UK labor market sent mixed signals, as unemployment remained below expectations while jobless claims rose sharply.

The claimant count increased by 27,800 in August, well above the 8,300 expected and reversing the previous 11,800 decline. Meanwhile, employment increased by 67,000 in the three months through July, slowing from 83,000 previously.

The unemployment rate held at 4.9% in July, slightly better than the 5.0% forecast. Overall, the figures suggest the UK labor market remains relatively resilient but is showing signs of softer hiring conditions.
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UK Growth Momentum Improves as NIESR GDP Tracker Rises to 0.5%

The UK economy showed signs of stronger momentum in August, with the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker rising to 0.5% from 0.4% previously.
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UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Industrial Production and Trade Improve

The UK economy expanded more strongly than expected in July, with GDP rising 0.4% month-over-month. The increase exceeded expectations for no growth and followed a 0.3% expansion in June.

Industrial activity also surprised to the upside. Industrial production increased 0.2% in July, compared with expectations for a 0.2% decline and reversing the previous month’s 0.2% contraction.

Meanwhile, the UK trade deficit narrowed to £20.97 billion from £23.01 billion, coming in better than the £22.60 billion deficit expected.

The combination of stronger GDP growth, improving industrial output and a narrower trade deficit points to resilient economic momentum at the start of the third quarter. The stronger data could also complicate expectations for further Bank of England monetary easing if inflation pressures remain elevated.
UK Retail Sales Growth Slows to 0.5% in August, Missing Forecasts

UK retail sales growth weakened more than expected in August, signaling softer consumer spending momentum.

The BRC Retail Sales Monitor increased 0.5% year over year, well below the 1.2% consensus forecast and slowing from 1.0% growth in the previous month.

The weaker reading suggests British consumers remained cautious as household budgets continued to face pressure from elevated living costs and borrowing expenses.

The data adds to signs of softer momentum in the UK economy and could reinforce expectations for a cautious Bank of England policy stance. Upcoming inflation, wage and broader retail-sales figures will be important in determining whether the slowdown in consumer demand persists.
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UK House Prices Fall 0.2% in August, Missing Expectations

UK house prices declined more than expected in August, pointing to renewed weakness in the residential property market.

The Lloyds House Price Index fell 0.2% month over month, compared with expectations for a 0.2% increase and following a 0.1% decline previously.

On an annual basis, house prices fell 0.4%, deteriorating from 0.1% growth in the previous month and marking a shift into negative territory.

Meanwhile, the average UK mortgage rate remained unchanged at 6.58% in August. Elevated borrowing costs continue to constrain housing affordability and buyer demand.

The weaker-than-expected housing data adds to signs of pressure on the UK property market, with high mortgage rates limiting demand despite expectations surrounding the Bank of England’s future monetary policy path.
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UK Construction PMI Falls to 44.3 in August, Missing Expectations

The UK construction sector contracted at a faster pace in August, as a sharp downturn in housebuilding weighed on overall activity and demand conditions remained subdued.

The S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 44.3 in August from 44.7 in July, missing market expectations of 45.8. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in construction activity. The sector has now recorded declining activity for 20 consecutive months.
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US Funds

Nasdaq Slides as Chip Sell-Off Accelerates, Dragging Semiconductor ETFs and AI Leaders Lower

The Nasdaq came under heavy selling pressure on Thursday after a relatively resilient start to the session, with semiconductor stocks leading a broad technology retreat. While the Dow Jones remained in positive territory, the Nasdaq fell more than 1.4% as investors aggressively sold chipmakers following their exceptional first-half rally.

The weakness was widespread across the semiconductor industry. Micron Technology (MU) dropped more than 7%, while SanDisk (SNDK) plunged over 15%, extending a sharp pullback that began after both companies posted massive year-to-date gains. Other major chip names, including Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO) and Western Digital (WDC) also traded lower as investors continued rotating out of AI infrastructure stocks.

The sell-off was equally visible in sector exchange-traded funds. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell roughly 7%, while the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) lost nearly 6%, highlighting broad-based weakness rather than company-specific concerns. The decline suggests investors are taking profits across the semiconductor sector after one of its strongest first-half performances on record.

Analysts point to a combination of factors behind the retreat, including profit-taking after extraordinary gains, concerns that AI-related chip valuations had become stretched, and signs that investors are rotating toward other parts of the technology sector. Recent reports suggesting cloud providers could optimize AI infrastructure spending have also fueled concerns that the pace of semiconductor demand growth may moderate, even as the long-term AI investment theme remains intact.

Despite Thursday’s sharp decline, many Wall Street analysts continue to view the move as a healthy correction rather than a change in the industry’s long-term outlook, arguing that AI-driven demand for advanced chips and memory products remains robust over the coming years.
State Street Investment Management launched the State Street IG Public & Private ABS ETF (PRAB), an actively managed exchange-traded fund designed to give investors broader exposure to investment-grade asset-backed securities across both public and private markets.

The fund invests in securities such as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities, aiming to provide diversified income opportunities and potentially higher yields compared with corporate bonds of similar risk.

State Street said the ETF responds to growing investor demand for access to the global asset-backed finance market, which exceeds $20 trillion but remains underrepresented in traditional bond portfolios.
Business Wire
State Street Investment Management has expanded its MyIncome ETF lineup with the launch of five actively managed high yield corporate bond target maturity ETFs, adding to what it calls the industry’s first actively managed corporate target maturity ETF suite.

The new funds — My2027 (MYHA), My2028 (MYHB), My2029 (MYHC), My2030 (MYHD) and My2031 (MYHE) High Yield Corporate Bond ETFs — provide exposure to high yield bonds with matching maturity years from 2027 through 2031. The ETFs are designed to help investors build bond ladders that manage interest rate risk while offering predictable income and liquidity.

Managed by the firm’s fixed income team, the funds aim to maximize yield while preserving capital and managing liquidity, sector and issuer concentration risks. Each ETF is structured to distribute remaining principal and liquidate around December 15 of its respective maturity year. As of January 31, 2026, assets under management in the MyIncome suite totaled $298 million.

Source:Business Wire

Sector Momentum Favors Defense; QQQ Yet To Break; Split NDX Breadth

The stock market is clearly in defensive mode but QQQ is still holding up, and its long-term breadth still hasn't turned bearish. Arthur Hill's analysis identifies the key levels to watch.

(articles.stockcharts.com)
State Street Investment Management has launched the **State Street Prime Money Market ETF (MMK)**, an actively managed ETF designed to provide flexible, transparent, and cost-effective cash management.

The ETF aims to maximize current income while preserving capital and liquidity, investing in short-term, high-quality debt instruments such as U.S. government securities, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, asset-backed securities, mortgage-related securities, and repurchase agreements.

With an expense ratio of **18 basis points**, MMK is among the lowest-cost active prime money market ETFs in the U.S. As of December 31, 2025, State Street’s cash team managed approximately **$599.55 billion** in assets.

Source: Business Wire.

VantagePoint A.I. Asset of the Week iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) - VantagePoint $SLV

This week's ai asset spotlight is the iShares Silver Trust ($SLV) On December 3, 2025, we put $SLV front and center as our Asset of the Week and made one thing crystal clear: silver was no

(vantagepointsoftware.com)
I collected my first dividend from the FDVV ETF this week. It was not much—just $12—but it felt good to see the portfolio start to generate cash. Over time, I expect these payments to grow.

I am also spending time researching QQQI. It is a relatively new ETF and clearly carries more risk, especially since it focuses on large technology companies that may be somewhat overvalued right now. Still, I plan to allocate a small portion of my portfolio to it. The annual yield of around 13% is attractive, and I believe the tech and AI rally is likely to continue for at least another couple of years. If that plays out, QQQI could contribute meaningfully to overall returns.
Blackrock multi asset income monthly commentary ...

(blackrock.com)
State Street launches lowest-cost leveraged loan ETF in the U.S.

State Street Investment Management introduced the State Street SPDR S&P Leveraged Loan ETF (LVLN), giving investors broad, index-based exposure to the expanding leveraged loan market. With a 0.40 percent gross expense ratio, LVLN is now the lowest-cost leveraged loan ETF available in the U.S., according to Bloomberg data as of November 18, 2025.

The fund tracks the S&P USD Select Leveraged Loan Index, which includes U.S. dollar–denominated loans of at least 500 million dollars and applies issuer, facility and industry caps for diversified coverage. State Street says demand for leveraged loans continues to grow as investors seek income and low correlation to Treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds.

The launch expands State Street’s fixed-income ETF lineup to include both active and index strategies targeting the rapidly growing loan segment.
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Brent Crude

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Brent Crude Falls 4% as Supply Fears Ease

Brent crude futures fell 4.01% to around $99.71 a barrel Monday, dropping back below the $100 level as traders reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices over the past week.

The decline reflects growing confidence that Saudi crude exports are recovering from recent disruptions and that alternative export routes are helping stabilize regional supply. Reuters reported that Saudi shipments have rebounded sharply in September, easing fears of a prolonged supply shock.

Oil was also pressured by renewed hopes for diplomatic progress involving the U.S. and Iran, which reduced some concern that Middle East tensions could escalate further and disrupt major energy routes.

Despite the pullback, geopolitical risk remains elevated. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still below normal levels, and recent attacks on regional infrastructure continue to leave the market vulnerable to sudden supply disruptions.

For now, Brent’s move below $100 suggests traders are shifting their focus from worst-case supply scenarios toward improving export flows and the possibility of diplomatic de-escalation.
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Brent Crude Falls Below $100 as Saudi Supply Concerns Ease

Brent crude futures fell 1.37% to around $98.56 a barrel Friday morning, extending a multi-session decline as fears of an immediate Saudi supply disruption continued to fade.

Oil prices had surged earlier in the week after attacks damaged Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and disrupted loadings from the Yanbu export hub. Since then, Saudi Arabia has begun restoring pipeline capacity and increasing crude movements through alternative routes, including Oman, reducing some of the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed Brent toward $110. (Reuters)

Geopolitical risks remain significant in Middle East and Ukraine, however. That means oil prices could remain volatile even as immediate supply fears ease.
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Brent Crude Falls 1.4% as Middle East Supply Fears Ease

Brent crude futures fell 1.44% to around $104.31 a barrel Thursday morning, extending their retreat from this week’s highs as concerns over immediate Middle East supply disruptions eased.

Oil prices came under pressure as Saudi Arabia worked to maintain crude exports following attacks on its East-West pipeline. Saudi shipments are being redirected through Oman’s Sohar port, while expectations that damaged pipeline infrastructure could return to service within days have reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that recently pushed Brent toward $110. (Reuters)

Prices also reacted to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump expressing hope that the war with Iran was nearing an end, although fighting involving Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces continued to keep regional supply risks elevated. (Internazionale)

Brent nevertheless remains above $100 as Middle East tensions continue to threaten energy flows.
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Brent Crude Surges Above $109 as Saudi Pipeline Shutdown Deepens Supply Fears

Brent crude surged more than 4% on Monday, climbing to $109.33 a barrel as escalating Middle East disruptions intensified concerns over global oil supplies.

The latest rally followed drone attacks that damaged Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, forcing the key route to remain closed over the weekend. The pipeline has become particularly important because it allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reach the Red Sea. Reuters reported that fresh attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and vessels in the region have compounded supply concerns.

Risks are also increasing around the Bab el-Mandeb shipping route, while a planned meeting between Iran and Gulf states to discuss shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was postponed. The setback reduced hopes for an immediate diplomatic solution to disruptions affecting some of the world’s most important energy corridors.(Reuters)

Brent has now returned to the $109 area after briefly retreating toward $104 late last week. The renewed surge is likely to keep inflation concerns elevated ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve decision, with higher energy costs adding another complication for the interest-rate outlook.
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Brent Crude Falls 3% as Diplomatic Hopes Trigger Pullback From Near $110

Brent crude futures fell sharply on Friday, retreating 3.02% to $104.38 a barrel after briefly approaching $110 earlier in the session. The decline follows Thursday’s 6.3% surge, when Brent settled at $107.63 amid escalating attacks on shipping in the Middle East.

The pullback came as traders reacted to reports that Gulf ministers are expected to meet Iran next week in an effort to secure temporary access through the Strait of Hormuz. Any improvement in shipping conditions could ease some of the supply-risk premium that has rapidly built into crude prices. (Financial Times)

Still, supply risks remain elevated. Traffic through Hormuz continues to be constrained, while the Iran-aligned Houthis’ seizure of Yemen’s Mocha port has increased concerns over another critical shipping route near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Despite Friday’s decline, Brent remains on track for a weekly gain of roughly 10% and is set to finish the week above $100 for the first time since mid-May, underscoring how strongly the prolonged Middle East conflict continues to influence global energy markets.
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Brent Crude Surges Above $105 as Middle East Supply Crisis Deepens

Brent crude oil extended its powerful rally Thursday, climbing 4.28% to $105.54 a barrel as escalating Middle East tensions and severe supply disruptions intensified concerns over global oil availability. Brent has now gained more than 10% over the past five sessions.

A sharp deterioration in Saudi Arabian supply has become a major catalyst. Saudi crude production reportedly fell to around 6.2 million barrels per day in August, down roughly 23% and reaching levels last seen in the 1990s, as regional conflict disrupted exports and shipping routes (Financial Times).

The broader supply picture is also tightening. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. The disruptions have increased concerns that available supply may struggle to compensate for lost Gulf barrels.

The oil rally is also spilling into global financial markets. U.S. producer inflation accelerated to 5.4% year over year in August, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.92% as investors assessed the risk that higher energy costs could prolong inflation and force the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy.

With Brent now firmly above $100, markets are closely watching developments around Hormuz and Saudi production. Further supply disruptions could keep upward pressure on crude prices and reinforce inflation concerns across the global economy.
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Brent Crude Touches $100 as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates and Supply Risks Mount

Brent crude oil futures climbed to the $100-per-barrel threshold on Wednesday as escalating conflict involving the U.S., Iran and regional allies intensified concerns over Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Brent was trading at $99.97, up $2.05, or 2.09%, after briefly rising above $100 earlier in the session. Reuters reported an intraday high of $100.19, marking the benchmark’s first move above $100 since July 24.

The latest rally follows a sharp escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. U.S. forces said they destroyed five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday, while Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S.-used base in Jordan and attacking vessels attempting to cross an area of the Strait of Hormuz that Tehran has declared unsafe. (Reuters)

Supply concerns have also increased after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi cities and energy facilities, causing fires and temporarily halting operations at some sites.

Shipping data underline the pressure on regional energy flows. Only six commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, compared with a 10-day average of about 12, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters.

Brent has now risen roughly 25% since early August as hopes for a lasting resolution to the conflict have faded. A sustained move above $100 would increase inflation concerns globally and could further complicate the outlook for interest rates ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.
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Brent Nears $100 as U.S.-Iran Tensions Escalate, While Gold Falls on Rate-Hike Fears

Brent crude surged toward the psychologically important $100-per-barrel level on Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified, while gold moved sharply lower as rising oil prices reinforced inflation concerns and expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Brent futures climbed 2.51% to $98.70 per barrel, reaching an intraday high above $99. The rally comes as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted. Geopolitical tensions have continued to deteriorate. Iran has threatened retaliation for further U.S. attacks and warned that energy infrastructure across the Gulf could be targeted. Tehran is also preparing a new restricted maritime zone around the Gulf and Hormuz area. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked Saudi energy facilities on Tuesday, further expanding concerns about regional energy infrastructure. (Reuters)

Gold, however, has not benefited from the escalating geopolitical risk. December futures fell *0.83% to $4,439.50*, extending their retreat after Friday’s strong U.S. employment report.

The key connection is oil. Higher crude prices increase the risk that energy costs will reignite inflation, potentially forcing the Fed to maintain tighter monetary policy. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike. Higher expected rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The U.S.-Iran conflict is therefore producing an unusual divergence: Brent is benefiting directly from fears of physical supply disruption, while gold’s traditional safe-haven support is being overwhelmed by the inflation and interest-rate implications of the oil surge. U.S. inflation data later this week will be crucial for determining whether that divergence continues.
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Brent Oil Holds Near $97 as U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates

Brent crude oil traded higher on Monday as escalating military exchanges between the United States and Iran intensified concerns about prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies.

Brent was trading around $96.75 per barrel, up 0.49%. The latest escalation came over the weekend. U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday after Iran launched ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy ships. Iran subsequently said it targeted three tankers using unauthorized routes through the Strait of Hormuz as well as additional U.S. vessels. (Reuters)

The Strait of Hormuz remains the central risk for crude prices. Tanker traffic through the waterway has fallen to its lowest level since May, while Iran said Monday that it plans to establish a new restricted shipping zone in the Gulf. (Reuters)

Supply concerns are therefore keeping a substantial geopolitical premium embedded in Brent. Further attacks on tankers or a deeper disruption to Hormuz traffic could push oil toward the psychologically important *$100-per-barrel level*, while any meaningful de-escalation between Washington and Tehran could quickly remove part of that risk premium.

Iran Says It Targeted Oil Tankers in Response to US Strikes

Iran said it targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a number of US-linked ships, in retaliation for American attacks on Iranian tankers over the weekend.

(finance.yahoo.com)
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Turkey

Turkey Capacity Utilization Rises in September as Manufacturing Confidence Eases

Turkey’s manufacturing capacity utilization rate increased to 74.2% in September from 73.5% previously, pointing to somewhat stronger use of existing production capacity.

At the same time, the Manufacturing Confidence Index slipped to 102.0 from 102.8. Because the index remained above 100, sentiment among manufacturers was still in positive territory, though confidence weakened slightly from the prior month.
Turkey Inflation Eases Slightly Below Forecasts in August

Turkey’s consumer inflation came in slightly below market expectations in August, although monthly price pressures remained elevated.

The Consumer Price Index rose 1.84% month over month, below the 1.93% consensus estimate but slightly faster than the 1.78% increase recorded in July. The figures show that prices continued to rise at a substantial monthly pace despite the downside surprise relative to forecasts.

Annual inflation stood at 31.51% in August, also slightly below the market consensus of 31.62%. The reading indicates that Turkey’s broader disinflation process is continuing, even as persistent monthly price increases underline the challenges facing policymakers in bringing inflation sustainably lower.

For the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, the softer-than-expected headline figures could provide some support for further monetary easing. However, the acceleration in monthly inflation from July suggests policymakers may remain cautious about the pace of rate cuts, particularly as they monitor domestic demand, inflation expectations and the Turkish lira.
Turkish Economy Slows to 2.3% Growth in Q2, Missing Forecast

Turkiye’s economy expanded 2.3% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, falling short of market expectations for 2.9% growth.

The result also marked a slowdown from the 2.6% annual growth recorded in the previous quarter, indicating that economic momentum weakened during Q2.
Turkiye's economy expanded 2.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, falling short of expectations for 2.7% growth and slowing from 3.4% in the previous quarter.
Turkey’s April inflation data came in above expectations, signaling renewed upward pressure on prices.

CPI rose 4.18% month-over-month, significantly higher than the 3.28% forecast and accelerating from 1.94% in March. On an annual basis, inflation reached 32.37%, also exceeding expectations of 31.25% and up from 30.87%.

The sharp monthly increase is the key signal here. It suggests a loss of short-term disinflation momentum
Türkiye’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $61.82 billion from $64.07 billion, indicating a reduction in overall reserve buffers.

In contrast, net FX reserves improved to 58.38% from 55.59%, suggesting a relative strengthening in usable reserves despite the drop in total holdings.
Turkey’s overnight borrowing rate remained unchanged at 35.50% in April, in line with market expectations and the previous reading.
Turkey’s consumer confidence edged higher in April, rising to 85.5 from 85.0 previously.
Türkiye’de Nisan ayında kapasite kullanım oranı %73,8’e yükselerek önceki ayki %73,3 seviyesine göre artış gösterdi. Buna karşılık, imalat sanayi güven endeksi 100,6’ya gerileyerek mart ayındaki 101,0 seviyesinin altına indi.

Veriler, üretim tarafında sınırlı bir toparlanmaya işaret ederken, güven tarafında hafif bir zayıflamaya işaret ediyor.
Türkiye merkezi yönetim borç stoku Mart ayında 14.446,9 milyar TL olarak gerçekleşti. Şubat ayındaki 14.395,8 milyar TL seviyesinin üzerine çıkan borç stoku, aylık bazda artışını sürdürdü.
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