US Bonds

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### U.S. 3-Year Treasury Auction Yield Jumps to 4.932%

The U.S. Treasury’s latest 3-year note auction cleared at a yield of 4.932%, sharply above the 4.474% yield at the previous auction.

The higher yield indicates investors demanded significantly more compensation to hold short- to intermediate-term government debt, reflecting renewed upward pressure on Treasury borrowing costs.

The result may reinforce market concerns that interest rates could remain elevated for longer, particularly as investors continue to assess inflation, labor-market resilience and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

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(finance.yahoo.com)
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U.S. 7-Year Treasury Auction Yield Jumps to 5.085%

The U.S. Treasury’s latest 7-year note auction cleared at a yield of 5.085%, sharply above the previous auction’s 4.512%.

The roughly 57-basis-point increase signals a materially higher yield environment for intermediate-term U.S. government debt and may reflect investors demanding greater compensation amid persistent inflation, resilient economic data and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 as market prices in another Fed rate hike

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday.

(finance.yahoo.com)

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(articles.stockcharts.com)
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5% as Inflation and Oil Keep Bond Markets Under Pressure

U.S. Treasury yields remained near multi-year highs Friday, with the benchmark 10-year yield trading around 4.94%, just below the psychologically important 5% level. The yield briefly reached about 4.97% earlier as a global bond selloff continued.

The sharp rise in yields has been driven by renewed inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year-over-year, while the surge in oil prices above $100 a barrel has increased concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike. (Reuters)

Pressure has also emerged from the supply side of the Treasury market. The government bought back $5.2 billion of longer-dated bonds in its latest operation, below the $6 billion maximum and well below the $10.5 billion offered by investors. Concerns about heavy government borrowing are adding to the premium investors demand for holding longer-term debt. (Reuters)

Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. CPI report. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could push the 10-year yield through 5%, while softer inflation could provide some relief to the bond market ahead of the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.

Graph: cnbc*com
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U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges Above 4.92% as Oil and Inflation Revive Rate-Hike Fears

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.922% on Thursday, rising about 8 basis points and reaching its highest level since 2023 as escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices and persistent U.S. inflation fueled a sharp bond-market selloff.

Geopolitical developments remain a major driver. The U.S.-Iran conflict has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, while attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure have intensified supply concerns.

The resulting oil rally is feeding directly into inflation expectations. Brent crude has climbed above $104 a barrel, while WTI briefly crossed $100 on Thursday. Higher energy costs raise the risk that inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can ease monetary policy and increasing the possibility of another rate hike.

Thursday’s macro data reinforced those concerns. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% month over month in August, while annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%, slightly exceeding the 5.3% forecast. Traders subsequently raised the probability of at least a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike next week to nearly 70%. (Reuters)

The 10-year yield has now risen sharply from around 4.75% over the past five sessions. With oil prices elevated and Friday’s U.S. CPI report still ahead, the 5% level is increasingly coming into focus as the next major threshold for the Treasury market.

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U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction Yield Jumps to 4.834% as Oil Fuels Inflation Concerns

The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year note auction cleared at 4.834% on Wednesday, sharply above the 4.683% yield at the previous auction, reflecting the broader rise in long-term U.S. borrowing costs.
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US Stocks Rise as Treasury Bond-Market Support Eases Yield Pressure

U.S. stocks were mostly higher Wednesday as the Treasury Department’s expanded bond-buyback operations continued to support sentiment by easing pressure in the government debt market.

The S&P 500 was up 0.37% at 7,719.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to 53,588.62. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slipped 0.05% to 26,277.81, giving back its earlier gains as technology stocks lagged the broader market.

Treasury Intervention Brings Relief to Bonds and Stocks

The main catalyst supporting risk sentiment was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to bolster liquidity in the Treasury market. The department said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and targeting the 10- to 30-year portion of the curve.

Bond yields dropped sharply following the announcement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to around 4.65%, while the 30-year yield declined roughly 9 basis points to around 5.20%. Treasury prices and yields move inversely.

The action has provided some relief after the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs became a major headwind for equities. The 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to around 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two decades, amid concerns over government borrowing, inflation, the U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices.

Dow Leads While Nasdaq Loses Momentum

The latest market action shows a divergence beneath the headline indexes. The Dow is now outperforming with a 0.46% gain, while the S&P 500 remains moderately higher. The Nasdaq has reversed its earlier advance and is trading slightly lower.

The reversal suggests that lower Treasury yields have not been enough to sustain the initial rebound in technology stocks. Growth and technology shares remain particularly sensitive to changes in long-term rates because higher yields reduce the present value of expected future earnings.

For the broader market, however, Treasury intervention has eased one of Wall Street’s most immediate concerns and helped stabilize financial conditions.

Investors will continue to monitor the Treasury market, oil prices and developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes are also in focus for additional clues about the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and interest rates.
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