France

Eurozone Inflation Eases Further in June, Supporting ECB Policy Outlook

Eurozone inflation continued to moderate in June, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have greater flexibility to continue easing monetary policy if disinflation remains on track.

Headline consumer inflation came in at 2.8% year over year, matching market expectations and slowing from 3.2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also met forecasts at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in the previous month.
Eurozone Services PMI Sends Mixed Signals as Germany Improves, France Remains Weak

The latest HCOB Services PMI data painted a mixed picture for the eurozone economy in June, with Germany showing signs of improvement, Italy returning to modest expansion, while France remained in contraction.

Germany’s HCOB Services PMI rose to 48.6 in June from 48.1 in May, comfortably beating economists’ expectations of 46.8. Although the index remained below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, the stronger-than-expected reading suggests the downturn in Germany’s services sector is easing.

Italy also showed encouraging signs, with its Services PMI rising to 50.2 from 49.4. While the figure came in just below the consensus estimate of 50.3, it moved back above the 50 mark, indicating a return to modest expansion after contracting in the previous month.

France, however, continued to lag behind its eurozone peers. The country’s Services PMI improved to 46.8 from 44.3 but missed expectations of 47.4, remaining firmly in contraction territory.
Eurozone Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June

Inflation across the eurozone eased more than expected in June, reinforcing signs that price pressures continue to moderate and strengthening expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy outlook.

The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8%, below economists' expectations of 3.0% and down from 3.2% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined to 2.4% from 2.6% in the previous month, coming in below the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
France's June PMI data painted a mixed picture for the economy, with manufacturing returning to expansion territory while services activity remained in contraction.

The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 from 49.7 in May, beating expectations of 50.2 and moving above the key 50 level that separates expansion from contraction. The reading suggests industrial activity is stabilizing after a prolonged period of weakness, supported by improving demand and a more resilient European economic backdrop.

However, the services sector remained under pressure. The HCOB France Services PMI increased to 47.4 from 44.3 in May, exceeding forecasts of 45.9 but remaining below 50. While the data indicate the pace of contraction slowed significantly, activity in the country's largest economic sector continues to decline.
Eurozone Inflation Accelerates as Core Prices Rise Faster Than Expected

Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated in May, with headline consumer prices rising 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April.

More notably, Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose 2.6%, exceeding forecasts of 2.5% and accelerating from 2.2% in the previous month. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests underlying inflationary pressures remain more persistent than policymakers had hoped.
Eurozone Investor Sentiment Turns Positive as ZEW Index Surges

Investor confidence in the Eurozone improved sharply in June, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rising to 9.5 from -9.1 in May, easily beating expectations for a reading of -7.2.
Eurozone Economy Shows Signs of Weakness as Trade Balance Turns Negative and Factory Output Misses Expectations

Fresh economic data pointed to a softer start to the second quarter for the Eurozone, with both trade and industrial production figures coming in below market expectations.

The Eurozone recorded a trade deficit of €1.0 billion in April, a sharp deterioration from the €4.9 billion surplus reported in the previous month and well below economists' expectations for a €7.8 billion surplus. The unexpected swing into deficit suggests external demand conditions weakened during the month and highlights ongoing challenges facing the region's export-oriented economies.

Industrial production also disappointed. Factory output rose just 0.1% month-over-month in April, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase and slowing from the previous month's 0.4% gain.

The weaker-than-expected figures reinforce concerns that the region's recovery remains fragile. Europe's industrial sector continues to face headwinds from soft global demand, trade uncertainty, and uneven economic growth among key trading partners.
The final May PMI data paint a mixed picture for the Eurozone economy.

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 47.7, comfortably above the 46.4 forecast and slightly higher than April's 47.6. While this is an improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating that the services sector is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.

More importantly, the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, came in at 48.5. This was stronger than the 47.5 consensus estimate but slightly below April's 48.8.
France's HCOB Services PMI fell to 44.3 in May, beating expectations of 42.9 but declining sharply from 46.5 in April.
Eurozone inflation accelerated in May, reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain persistent despite the European Central Bank’s easing efforts. Headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April, while monthly inflation slowed sharply to 0.1% from 1.0% previously.

More importantly for policymakers, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—climbed to 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and accelerating from 2.2% in April. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain more stubborn than anticipated.
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