European Investor
12 Aug 2026, 09:03
Brent Crude Rises Toward $90 as Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep Supply Concerns Elevated
Brent crude oil prices moved higher on Wednesday, extending recent gains as renewed tensions in the Middle East reduced hopes for a near-term normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures were up around 0.55% at $89.40 per barrel in early trading, after briefly moving above $90. The international benchmark has strengthened in recent sessions as geopolitical developments once again put supply risks at the center of the oil market.
Strait of Hormuz Remains the Main Driver
The latest advance comes after new maritime attacks involving Iran-aligned Houthis and the United States further weakened expectations for an easing of the regional conflict. Iran has also maintained that the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted unless its conditions are met, keeping uncertainty around one of the world's most important energy transit routes elevated.
The situation has become particularly important for crude pricing because roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies normally passed through the Strait before the conflict. Expectations that restrictions could ease had previously removed some of the geopolitical premium from crude prices, but fading prospects for a rapid reopening are now rebuilding that premium.
Supply Outlook Supports Higher Prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has also significantly revised its near-term oil outlook because of the disruption. The EIA now expects Brent spot prices to average around $85 per barrel during the third quarter, $11 above its previous forecast, citing reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting decline in global inventories.
However, the agency expects some of the current pressure to ease later in the year. If traffic through Hormuz gradually increases and shut-in Middle Eastern production returns, the EIA forecasts Brent averaging around $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
What to Watch
For Brent, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant near-term catalyst. Any indication of progress toward reopening the waterway or a broader U.S.-Iran agreement could quickly reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Conversely, further attacks on vessels or energy infrastructure could push supply concerns higher and renew pressure on the $90 level.
U.S. inflation data will also be closely watched Wednesday. Higher oil prices themselves have become an important inflation risk, meaning the interaction between geopolitical tensions, energy costs and monetary-policy expectations could contribute to continued volatility across commodity markets.
Brent crude oil prices moved higher on Wednesday, extending recent gains as renewed tensions in the Middle East reduced hopes for a near-term normalization of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures were up around 0.55% at $89.40 per barrel in early trading, after briefly moving above $90. The international benchmark has strengthened in recent sessions as geopolitical developments once again put supply risks at the center of the oil market.
Strait of Hormuz Remains the Main Driver
The latest advance comes after new maritime attacks involving Iran-aligned Houthis and the United States further weakened expectations for an easing of the regional conflict. Iran has also maintained that the Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted unless its conditions are met, keeping uncertainty around one of the world's most important energy transit routes elevated.
The situation has become particularly important for crude pricing because roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies normally passed through the Strait before the conflict. Expectations that restrictions could ease had previously removed some of the geopolitical premium from crude prices, but fading prospects for a rapid reopening are now rebuilding that premium.
Supply Outlook Supports Higher Prices
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has also significantly revised its near-term oil outlook because of the disruption. The EIA now expects Brent spot prices to average around $85 per barrel during the third quarter, $11 above its previous forecast, citing reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting decline in global inventories.
However, the agency expects some of the current pressure to ease later in the year. If traffic through Hormuz gradually increases and shut-in Middle Eastern production returns, the EIA forecasts Brent averaging around $78 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
What to Watch
For Brent, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant near-term catalyst. Any indication of progress toward reopening the waterway or a broader U.S.-Iran agreement could quickly reduce the geopolitical risk premium. Conversely, further attacks on vessels or energy infrastructure could push supply concerns higher and renew pressure on the $90 level.
U.S. inflation data will also be closely watched Wednesday. Higher oil prices themselves have become an important inflation risk, meaning the interaction between geopolitical tensions, energy costs and monetary-policy expectations could contribute to continued volatility across commodity markets.
