Canada

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Canada GDP Stalls in July, August Estimate Points to Modest Rebound

Canada’s economy was unchanged in July, with monthly GDP growth at 0.0%, matching market expectations but slowing from a 0.3% increase previously.

The flat reading suggests economic momentum weakened at the start of the third quarter, with overall activity failing to expand during the month.

An early estimate for August was more encouraging, however, pointing to 0.2% monthly growth. If confirmed, that would suggest the economy regained some momentum after July’s pause.

For markets, the mixed picture may keep expectations for Bank of Canada policy balanced. The weak July reading supports the case for easier policy, while the August rebound estimate suggests the economy is not deteriorating sharply.
Canada Wholesale Sales Fall 1.5% in August

Canada’s wholesale sales declined 1.5% month over month in August, reversing the previous month’s 0.3% increase.
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Canada Retail Sales Fall in July, but August Estimate Points to Strong Rebound

Canadian retail sales declined 0.7% month over month in July, slightly better than the 0.8% contraction expected but reversing the previous month’s 0.6% increase.

Core retail sales, which exclude some volatile components, also fell 0.7%, missing expectations for a 0.5% decline and weakening from a 0.5% gain previously.

The July figures point to softer household spending momentum, but an early estimate for August showed retail sales rebounding 1.3% month over month.

The mixed data suggest consumer demand weakened in July but may have recovered quickly in August. For markets, the stronger August estimate partly offsets the softer July report and may limit the extent to which the data reinforce expectations for easier Bank of Canada policy.
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Canada New Housing Prices Fall 0.1% in August

Canada’s New Housing Price Index declined 0.1% month over month in August, matching the previous month’s decrease.

The reading suggests that pricing conditions in the new-home market remained soft, with builders facing continued affordability constraints and cautious buyer demand.
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Canada Housing Data Weakens as Building Permits Plunge 17.3%

Canada’s housing sector showed renewed weakness, with housing starts coming in at an annualized 229,000 units in August, below expectations of 243,000 and little changed from the previous month.

Building permits delivered a much larger downside surprise, plunging 17.3% month over month in July compared with expectations for a 4.7% decline, reversing the previous month’s strong 18.3% increase.

The figures add to signs of cooling in Canada’s housing market. Overall, the sharp decline in permits and softer construction activity suggest that residential investment could remain under pressure in the coming months, particularly if borrowing costs stay elevated.
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Canada Wholesale Sales Rise 0.3% in July, Beating Expectations

Canadian wholesale sales unexpectedly increased in July, providing a more resilient signal for economic activity at the start of the third quarter.

Wholesale sales rose 0.3% month over month to C$93.1 billion, beating expectations for a 0.5% decline, though growth slowed sharply from June’s 2.8% increase.
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Canada Inflation Cools in August as Monthly CPI Falls 0.1%

Canada’s inflation data showed easing monthly price pressures in August, with headline CPI falling 0.1% month over month, matching market expectations and reversing the previous 0.5% increase.

Core CPI increased just 0.1% on a monthly basis, below the 0.2% forecast and the previous 0.2% reading. On an annual basis, however, core inflation edged higher to 2.4% from 2.3%.

The figures present a mixed inflation picture: short-term price momentum weakened noticeably, while underlying annual inflation remained somewhat sticky.

Chrétien Tells U.S. ‘We Bow to No One’ as Canada–Trump Trade War Deepens - Hashtag Investing

Former prime minister Jean Chrétien chose one of the most emotionally charged places in the Canada–U.S. relationship to deliver one of the bluntest Canadian

(hashtaginvesting.com)
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves in September, While Confidence Weakens in Canada and Mexico

Consumer sentiment across North America diverged in September, according to the latest Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index readings.

In the United States, the PCSI rose to 50.45 from 49.38 in August, indicating an improvement in household sentiment after the previous month’s decline. The index measures consumers’ views on economic conditions, personal finances, purchasing comfort, job security and expectations.

Canada moved in the opposite direction, with the index falling to 47.35 from 48.19. Canadian households have remained cautious amid affordability pressures, trade uncertainty and concerns about inflation and the broader economic outlook.

Mexico’s PCSI also weakened, declining to 50.84 from 52.77 in August.

The September figures therefore point to improving consumer confidence in the U.S., while sentiment deteriorated in both Canada and Mexico.
Canada’s Leading Index Growth Slows to 0.13% in August

Canada’s Leading Index increased 0.13% month over month in August, signaling continued but moderating momentum in the Canadian economy.

The latest reading slowed from a 0.17% increase in July.

The index is designed to provide an early indication of changes in economic activity, making the slowdown a sign that growth momentum may be losing some strength heading into the latter part of the year.
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