Vistra Corp NYSE:VST Price, Chart, News & Insight

NYSE:VST

Vistra Stock Falls 3% After Q2 Earnings Despite 30% EBITDA Growth and Reaffirmed Outlook

Vistra (NYSE: VST) shares fell about 3% Friday after the power producer reported second-quarter 2026 results that showed strong growth in adjusted EBITDA but a decline in GAAP net income and no increase to its full-year guidance.

The results were fundamentally solid. Vistra reported Q2 net income of $305 million, down from $327 million a year earlier. The decline was primarily related to a $472 million unrealized loss on hedges expected to settle in future years.

Underlying operating performance was considerably stronger. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA climbed more than 30% year over year to $1.77 billion, up from $1.35 billion.

Texas and East Businesses Drive Growth

Vistra's generation businesses delivered particularly strong gains during the quarter:

* Texas Adjusted EBITDA jumped to $311 million from $142 million.
* East Adjusted EBITDA increased to $642 million from $418 million.
* Retail EBITDA edged higher to $773 million from $756 million.
* West EBITDA rose to $68 million from $49 million.

Management attributed the improvement primarily to higher realized energy and capacity prices, along with contributions from plants acquired from Lotus.

Vistra also reported strong fleet performance during periods of extreme heat, with commercial availability of at least 97% across its fleet.

Vistra Reaffirms 2026 Guidance

Despite the strong quarterly EBITDA growth, Vistra did not raise its full-year outlook. The company reaffirmed 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow Before Growth guidance of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.

Vistra also maintained its previously announced 2027 Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion. Importantly, that range excludes potential benefits from the pending Cogentrix acquisition and signed power purchase agreements with Meta.

The company has substantially hedged its expected generation, with approximately 100% of 2026 volumes, 94% of 2027 volumes and 72% of 2028 volumes hedged as of August 3.

Why Is VST Stock Down Today?

The roughly 2% decline appears less connected to deterioration in Vistra's underlying business and more to expectations embedded in the stock.

Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeded 30%, but GAAP net income declined and management simply reaffirmed rather than increased its 2026 guidance. For a stock whose valuation has increasingly reflected expectations for surging electricity demand from AI and data centers, a solid quarter without a meaningful upward guidance revision may not have been enough to generate further buying.

The $472 million unrealized hedge loss may also weigh on the headline reaction, although it does not necessarily indicate comparable deterioration in the company's underlying operating performance.

Meanwhile, Vistra continues to expand its exposure to data-center electricity demand. The company announced Helix Digital Infrastructure alongside KKR, Kuwait Investment Authority and NVIDIA, with Vistra committing up to $1 billion and becoming Helix's preferred power provider.

Vistra also received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approval for its pending Cogentrix Energy acquisition.

Friday's decline therefore comes despite strong operating results. The key question for VST investors is increasingly whether accelerating power demand and data-center projects can translate into earnings growth beyond the already elevated expectations reflected in the stock.

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Global Finance News 08-07-26

Vistra Stock Falls After TD Cowen Lowers Price Target Despite Maintaining Buy Rating

Vistra (NYSE: VST) shares fell nearly 4% on Monday after TD Cowen lowered its price target on the independent power producer to $222 from $230 while maintaining its Buy rating.

Although the revised target still implies significant upside from the current share price, the lower valuation prompted investors to take profits following the stock's strong performance over the past year.

The price target reduction suggests TD Cowen has become slightly more conservative on Vistra's near-term valuation, even as it continues to view the company's long-term fundamentals favorably. The firm maintained its positive rating, indicating confidence in Vistra's ability to benefit from rising electricity demand, particularly from AI data centers and broader electrification trends.

Vistra remains one of the largest competitive power generators in the U.S. and has been a key beneficiary of expectations for sustained growth in power consumption. Investors continue to focus on the company's diversified generation portfolio, strong free cash flow, and shareholder-friendly capital allocation strategy.

Despite the analyst's continued bullish stance, today's market reaction reflects the sensitivity of high-performing utility and power stocks to valuation changes. While TD Cowen still sees meaningful upside with its $222 target, the lower price objective appears to have weighed on sentiment and contributed to today's decline in Vistra shares.

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European Investor 07-27-26

Vistra Edges Up as Solid Quarter and Investment Grade Upgrade Offset Guidance Hold

Irving, May 7, 2026 — Shares in Vistra Corp. ticked up a modest 0.24% today after the power generation company reported a strong first quarter and received a second investment grade credit rating upgrade, though the decision to merely reaffirm rather than raise full-year guidance likely kept a lid on any larger move.

Vistra posted Q1 2026 net income of $1.029 billion, a dramatic swing from the $268 million loss in the same quarter a year ago. Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA rose 20% year-over-year to $1.494 billion. The net income improvement was driven largely by $723 million in unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivative hedges — a mirror image of the kind of non-cash accounting swings that hurt peers like Cheniere this quarter. Strip those out and the underlying operational gains are still real: the East segment nearly doubled its EBITDA contribution to $801 million, helped by higher realized capacity prices and a full quarter of contribution from plants acquired in the Lotus deal. The Texas segment also grew to $586 million.

The one soft spot was retail, where EBITDA fell from $184 million to $68 million, driven by one of the mildest first quarters on record in Texas — a weather-related headwind that was squarely outside management's control.

On the strategic front, Fitch upgraded Vistra's corporate credit rating to investment grade, following S&P's action last year. Having two major rating agencies at investment grade meaningfully lowers the company's cost of capital and broadens its investor base. The pending $5.5 gigawatt Cogentrix natural gas acquisition, targeted to close in the second half of 2026, and long-term power purchase agreements signed with Meta at Vistra's PJM nuclear sites add further medium-term earnings visibility.

Full-year guidance was reaffirmed at $6.8 to $7.6 billion in Adjusted EBITDA. With 98% of 2026 generation already hedged, the range is well underpinned — but investors looking for an upward revision went home empty-handed, which likely explains the near-flat stock reaction to an otherwise solid report.

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European Investor 05-07-26

Vistra Corp. announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Vistra Operations Company LLC, completed a $2.25 billion private placement of senior secured notes on January 22, 2026. The offering consists of $1.0 billion of 4.70% notes due 2031 and $1.25 billion of 5.35% notes due 2036, generating approximately $2.225 billion in net proceeds after fees.

Vistra said the proceeds, together with cash on hand, will be used primarily to fund part of the consideration for its previously announced acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, as well as for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment and transaction-related costs. The notes are guaranteed by certain subsidiaries and secured by first-priority liens on substantially the same collateral supporting Vistra’s existing credit facilities.

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European Investor 01-28-26

Vistra Q3 2025 Results: Strong Earnings, Strategic Expansion, and New 2026 Guidance

Vistra reported third-quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $652 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.58 billion, reflecting solid operational performance and growth across its portfolio. The company narrowed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $5.7–$5.9 billion and raised the midpoint for adjusted free cash flow before growth (FCFbG) to $3.3–$3.5 billion.

For 2026, Vistra introduced guidance of $6.8–$7.6 billion for adjusted EBITDA and $3.93–$4.73 billion for adjusted FCFbG. The company also projected a midpoint opportunity of $7.4–$7.8 billion for 2027 EBITDA.

Vistra’s board authorized an additional $1 billion in share repurchases, expected to be completed by the end of 2027, reinforcing its shareholder return strategy.

Strategically, Vistra completed the acquisition of seven natural gas plants from Lotus Infrastructure Partners, adding roughly 2,600 MW of generation capacity across the Midwest, Northeast, and California. It also announced plans to construct two new natural gas power units totaling 860 MW in West Texas to support the Permian Basin’s growing energy needs as the oil and gas sector electrifies operations.

Additionally, the company entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with an investment-grade counterparty for 1,200 MW from its Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant, securing long-term revenue stability and ensuring extended plant operations well into the century.

CEO Jim Burke highlighted that these moves demonstrate Vistra’s disciplined growth approach and commitment to supporting the U.S. energy transition while maintaining strong earnings momentum.

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The Investor 11-06-25

Vistra Corp. reported that on October 1, 2025, its subsidiary Vistra Operations Company LLC amended its Commodity Linked Credit Agreement with Citibank, N.A. and a group of lenders. The amendment extends the revolving credit facility maturity from October 1, 2025, to September 30, 2026, adjusts the borrowing base calculation, and makes other related updates. The company stated that this amendment maintains financial flexibility and supports its ongoing operations. The full text of the amendment will be filed with Vistra’s next periodic SEC report.

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European Investor 10-06-25

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) announced that it has entered into a 20-year power purchase agreement, with options to extend up to 40 years, to supply 1,200 MW of carbon-free electricity from the Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant to a large investment-grade customer.

Power deliveries are expected to begin in Q4 2027 and ramp to full capacity by 2032. Based on current forward prices and its medium-term cash flow conversion expectations, Vistra projects the deal could add approximately 8–10% to Adjusted Free Cash Flow before growth if the customer utilizes the full contracted capacity.

The agreement underscores Vistra’s long-term commitment to reliability and sustainability, leveraging nuclear generation as a carbon-free resource to strengthen financial growth and customer partnerships.

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The Investor 09-29-25

Vistra Expands Credit Facilities with $1.1 Billion Receivables Commitment and Extended Terms

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) announced amendments to two key financing agreements through its subsidiaries, enhancing liquidity and extending terms.

TXU Energy Retail, TXU Energy Receivables, and Vistra Operations amended their Receivables Purchase Agreement with Credit Agricole to increase the committed purchasers’ aggregate commitment from $1.0 billion to $1.1 billion. The facility's term is extended through July 10, 2026.

Separately, TXU Retail and Vistra Operations amended their Master Framework Agreement with MUFG Bank, also extending its maturity to July 10, 2026.

These moves support Vistra’s ongoing financial flexibility and operational funding needs.

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European Investor 07-17-25

01-10-26The Investor

02-28-25The Investor

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