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Treasury Yields Are Climbing. Can Stocks Hold Their Ground?

Rising Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and weakening small caps put pressure on stocks. Here's what investors should watch next.

(articles.stockcharts.com)

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The Investor 09-12-26

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5% as Inflation and Oil Keep Bond Markets Under Pressure

U.S. Treasury yields remained near multi-year highs Friday, with the benchmark 10-year yield trading around 4.94%, just below the psychologically important 5% level. The yield briefly reached about 4.97% earlier as a global bond selloff continued.

The sharp rise in yields has been driven by renewed inflation concerns and expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates next week. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year-over-year, while the surge in oil prices above $100 a barrel has increased concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated. Markets are currently pricing roughly a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed hike. (Reuters)

Pressure has also emerged from the supply side of the Treasury market. The government bought back $5.2 billion of longer-dated bonds in its latest operation, below the $6 billion maximum and well below the $10.5 billion offered by investors. Concerns about heavy government borrowing are adding to the premium investors demand for holding longer-term debt. (Reuters)

Attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. CPI report. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could push the 10-year yield through 5%, while softer inflation could provide some relief to the bond market ahead of the Fed’s September 15–16 meeting.

Graph: cnbc*com

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European Investor 09-11-26

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges Above 4.92% as Oil and Inflation Revive Rate-Hike Fears

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.922% on Thursday, rising about 8 basis points and reaching its highest level since 2023 as escalating Middle East tensions, surging oil prices and persistent U.S. inflation fueled a sharp bond-market selloff.

Geopolitical developments remain a major driver. The U.S.-Iran conflict has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, while attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure have intensified supply concerns.

The resulting oil rally is feeding directly into inflation expectations. Brent crude has climbed above $104 a barrel, while WTI briefly crossed $100 on Thursday. Higher energy costs raise the risk that inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can ease monetary policy and increasing the possibility of another rate hike.

Thursday’s macro data reinforced those concerns. U.S. producer prices rose 0.4% month over month in August, while annual PPI accelerated to 5.4% from 4.8%, slightly exceeding the 5.3% forecast. Traders subsequently raised the probability of at least a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike next week to nearly 70%. (Reuters)

The 10-year yield has now risen sharply from around 4.75% over the past five sessions. With oil prices elevated and Friday’s U.S. CPI report still ahead, the 5% level is increasingly coming into focus as the next major threshold for the Treasury market.

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The Investor 09-10-26

Apple event live updates: First foldable, the iPhone Duo, iPhone 18 Pro, watches, and more

Apple is hosting its annual fall event at its Cupertino, Calif., headquarters.

(finance.yahoo.com)

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WS Investor 09-09-26

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction Yield Jumps to 4.834% as Oil Fuels Inflation Concerns

The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year note auction cleared at 4.834% on Wednesday, sharply above the 4.683% yield at the previous auction, reflecting the broader rise in long-term U.S. borrowing costs.

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WS Investor 09-09-26

US Stocks Rise as Treasury Bond-Market Support Eases Yield Pressure

U.S. stocks were mostly higher Wednesday as the Treasury Department’s expanded bond-buyback operations continued to support sentiment by easing pressure in the government debt market.

The S&P 500 was up 0.37% at 7,719.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to 53,588.62. The Nasdaq Composite, however, slipped 0.05% to 26,277.81, giving back its earlier gains as technology stocks lagged the broader market.

Treasury Intervention Brings Relief to Bonds and Stocks

The main catalyst supporting risk sentiment was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to bolster liquidity in the Treasury market. The department said it would at least double the maximum size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion and targeting the 10- to 30-year portion of the curve.

Bond yields dropped sharply following the announcement. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to around 4.65%, while the 30-year yield declined roughly 9 basis points to around 5.20%. Treasury prices and yields move inversely.

The action has provided some relief after the recent surge in long-term borrowing costs became a major headwind for equities. The 30-year Treasury yield had climbed to around 5.34% on Tuesday, its highest level in nearly two decades, amid concerns over government borrowing, inflation, the U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices.

Dow Leads While Nasdaq Loses Momentum

The latest market action shows a divergence beneath the headline indexes. The Dow is now outperforming with a 0.46% gain, while the S&P 500 remains moderately higher. The Nasdaq has reversed its earlier advance and is trading slightly lower.

The reversal suggests that lower Treasury yields have not been enough to sustain the initial rebound in technology stocks. Growth and technology shares remain particularly sensitive to changes in long-term rates because higher yields reduce the present value of expected future earnings.

For the broader market, however, Treasury intervention has eased one of Wall Street’s most immediate concerns and helped stabilize financial conditions.

Investors will continue to monitor the Treasury market, oil prices and developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes are also in focus for additional clues about the outlook for monetary policy, inflation and interest rates.

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Global Finance News 08-19-26

U.S. Stocks Fall as Iran Conflict, Rising Oil Prices and Treasury Yields Pressure Markets

U.S. stocks traded lower Tuesday as the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher and intensified concerns about inflation and interest rates, with technology stocks leading the decline.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 26,301, underperforming the broader market. The S&P 500 declined 0.49% to 7,707, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.06% at 53,429.

The risk-off move comes as hopes for a lasting resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict fade. Iran has shifted toward a more offensive military posture after efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the conflict stalled, while Washington declined to extend the temporary ceasefire.

Oil and Bond Yields Add Pressure

Energy markets remain one of the main channels through which the conflict is affecting U.S. equities. Brent crude rose for a third consecutive session Tuesday, trading around $91 per barrel and reaching its highest level in nearly three weeks as continued restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about global oil supplies.

Higher oil prices are feeding concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

Those concerns have spilled into the bond market. The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.327%, its highest level since 2007, while the benchmark 10-year yield was also around 4.73%. The rise in long-term yields reflects a combination of inflation concerns related to the conflict and oil prices, alongside broader worries about U.S. borrowing and debt issuance.

The combination of higher energy prices and rising bond yields is particularly challenging for growth and technology stocks, helping explain the Nasdaq's sharper decline.

Latest U.S. Data Point to Softer Economic Momentum

Tuesday's economic releases added another layer of uncertainty.

U.S. housing starts dropped 12.4% month-over-month in July to an annualized 1.239 million units, well below expectations of 1.340 million and down sharply from 1.415 million previously.

Industrial production increased just 0.2% month-over-month in July, below the 0.3% forecast and previous reading. On a year-over-year basis, production growth slowed to 1.08% from 1.29%.

The labor market offered a somewhat stronger signal. Weekly ADP employment growth came in at 9,500 jobs, up from 8,300 previously.

Taken together, the data point to uneven economic momentum: employment continues to expand, but housing activity weakened sharply and industrial production grew more slowly than expected.

For Wall Street, however, geopolitics remains the dominant driver Tuesday. As long as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps Brent crude elevated and pushes longer-term Treasury yields higher, pressure on equity valuations — particularly in the technology sector — is likely to remain a central market risk.

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The Investor 08-18-26

Inflation is increasingly in focus for the US bond market and the Fed, says Mike Mitchell, head of US Treasury and Inflation Trading at Goldman Sachs.

(goldmansachs.com)

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European Investor 08-15-26

U.S. 6-Month Treasury Bill Yield Falls to 3.830%

The U.S. Treasury's latest six-month bill auction produced a yield of 3.830%, down slightly from 3.855% at the previous auction.

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WS Investor 08-10-26

U.S. Treasury Auction Yields Rise Ahead of Fed Decision as Investors Demand Higher Returns

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Monday after the Treasury’s latest debt auctions cleared at higher yields than the previous sales, reflecting investor caution ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and a busy slate of economic data.

The U.S. Treasury’s $69 billion 2-year note auction stopped at a high yield of 4.315%, up from 4.189% at the previous auction. Later in the day, the $70 billion 5-year note auction also cleared at a higher yield of 4.408%, compared with 4.200% previously.

The higher stop-out yields suggest investors demanded greater compensation to hold U.S. government debt, a sign that bond markets remain cautious about the outlook for interest rates and inflation. Treasury auctions are closely watched because they provide insight into investor demand for government securities and can influence borrowing costs across financial markets.

The auctions came just hours after softer-than-expected U.S. durable goods orders data, which pointed to moderating business investment but did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at this week’s policy meeting.

Higher Treasury yields can weigh on equity valuations, particularly in growth sectors such as technology, by increasing discount rates used to value future earnings.

With the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, key inflation data, and earnings from several mega-cap technology companies all due later this week, investors are likely to remain focused on the bond market for further signals about the direction of monetary policy and the broader U.S. economy.

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WS News 07-28-26

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Treasury Yields Are Climbing. Can Stocks Hold Their Ground?

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