Turkey

Turkish Economy Slows to 2.3% Growth in Q2, Missing Forecast

Turkiye’s economy expanded 2.3% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026, falling short of market expectations for 2.9% growth.

The result also marked a slowdown from the 2.6% annual growth recorded in the previous quarter, indicating that economic momentum weakened during Q2.
Turkiye's economy expanded 2.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, falling short of expectations for 2.7% growth and slowing from 3.4% in the previous quarter.
Turkey’s April inflation data came in above expectations, signaling renewed upward pressure on prices.

CPI rose 4.18% month-over-month, significantly higher than the 3.28% forecast and accelerating from 1.94% in March. On an annual basis, inflation reached 32.37%, also exceeding expectations of 31.25% and up from 30.87%.

The sharp monthly increase is the key signal here. It suggests a loss of short-term disinflation momentum
Türkiye’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $61.82 billion from $64.07 billion, indicating a reduction in overall reserve buffers.

In contrast, net FX reserves improved to 58.38% from 55.59%, suggesting a relative strengthening in usable reserves despite the drop in total holdings.
Turkey’s overnight borrowing rate remained unchanged at 35.50% in April, in line with market expectations and the previous reading.
Turkey’s consumer confidence edged higher in April, rising to 85.5 from 85.0 previously.
Türkiye’de Nisan ayında kapasite kullanım oranı %73,8’e yükselerek önceki ayki %73,3 seviyesine göre artış gösterdi. Buna karşılık, imalat sanayi güven endeksi 100,6’ya gerileyerek mart ayındaki 101,0 seviyesinin altına indi.

Veriler, üretim tarafında sınırlı bir toparlanmaya işaret ederken, güven tarafında hafif bir zayıflamaya işaret ediyor.
Türkiye merkezi yönetim borç stoku Mart ayında 14.446,9 milyar TL olarak gerçekleşti. Şubat ayındaki 14.395,8 milyar TL seviyesinin üzerine çıkan borç stoku, aylık bazda artışını sürdürdü.
Turkey Inflation Expectations rose to 27.53% in April, up from the previous 25.38%, indicating a deterioration in inflation expectations.
Türkiye’s latest reserve data shows a clear improvement in external buffers.

Gross FX reserves rose to 64.07B from 58.42B, indicating a strong increase in headline reserves. At the same time, net FX reserves climbed to 55.59% from 45.66%, suggesting a notable strengthening in usable reserves after accounting for liabilities.
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