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Eurozone Inflation Jumps to 3.3% in August, Strengthening ECB Rate-Hike Expectations

Eurozone inflation accelerated sharply in August, increasing pressure on the European Central Bank as higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict continue to feed into consumer prices.

Annual inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.9% in July, matching market expectations and moving further above the ECB’s 2% target. Energy was the main driver, with energy prices surging 14.3% year over year as crude oil and natural gas costs increased.

Underlying inflation offered a more encouraging signal. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, slightly below the 2.5% forecast. Services inflation also slowed to 3.0% from 3.3%, suggesting the energy shock has not yet developed into broad-based price pressure.

Meanwhile, the eurozone unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in July, compared with expectations for 6.3%, indicating some softening in the labor market.

The inflation figures strengthen expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates at its September 10 meeting. Markets are increasingly expecting a 25-basis-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.50%, which would represent the ECB’s second rate hike this year.

The overall picture remains complicated for policymakers: headline inflation is accelerating because of the energy shock while core inflation and labor-market data are showing less pressure. This supports another near-term ECB hike but could make policymakers more cautious about committing to an extended tightening cycle.
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Eurozone Manufacturing Accelerates as Services Remain in Expansion

Eurozone business activity remained positive in August, with manufacturing showing a notable improvement.

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.8 from 51.9, beating the 51.8 forecast and signaling a stronger expansion in factory activity.

The Services PMI held at 51.7, slightly above expectations of 51.5 and remaining comfortably above the 50 expansion threshold.

Overall, the data point to resilient Eurozone activity, with the manufacturing recovery gaining momentum while services continue to expand at a steady pace.
Eurozone Inflation Rises to 2.9% in July, Core CPI Climbs to 2.5%

Eurozone inflation accelerated in July, with both headline and core consumer price growth moving higher from the previous month, keeping inflation pressures above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

Annual CPI inflation came in at 2.9% in July, matching market expectations but rising from 2.8% previously. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile components and is closely watched for underlying price pressures, increased to 2.5% from 2.4%, also in line with forecasts.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after declining 0.1% in the previous month.
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Eurozone Investor Sentiment Rises More Than Expected in August

Eurozone investor confidence improved further in August, adding to signs that expectations for the region’s economic outlook are gradually strengthening.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 31.4 in August from 23.4 previously, comfortably beating market expectations of 25.9. A reading above zero indicates that more surveyed analysts expect economic conditions to improve rather than deteriorate over the coming six months.

The stronger Eurozone reading coincides with a notable improvement in Germany, where the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index climbed to 34.2 from 26.3 and also exceeded expectations.

The latest figures suggest financial-market participants are becoming increasingly optimistic about the European economic outlook. The European Commission’s broader sentiment indicators had already shown improvement in July, with economic sentiment strengthening in both the EU and Eurozone.

Overall, the August ZEW reading provides another positive forward-looking signal for the Eurozone economy. However, improving expectations will still need to translate into stronger underlying business activity for confidence in a sustained economic recovery to strengthen.
Eurozone Economy Expands 0.4% in Q2 as Growth Accelerates

The eurozone economy expanded by 0.4% quarter over quarter in the second quarter of 2026, matching market expectations and improving sharply from flat growth in the previous quarter.

On an annual basis, GDP increased 1.0%, also in line with expectations and accelerating from 0.5% growth in the first quarter.
Eurozone Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June

Inflation across the eurozone eased more than expected in June, reinforcing signs that price pressures continue to moderate and strengthening expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy outlook.

The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 2.8%, below economists' expectations of 3.0% and down from 3.2% in May.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also declined to 2.4% from 2.6% in the previous month, coming in below the consensus forecast of 2.5%.
Eurozone Inflation Accelerates as Core Prices Rise Faster Than Expected

Inflation in the Eurozone accelerated in May, with headline consumer prices rising 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April.

More notably, Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose 2.6%, exceeding forecasts of 2.5% and accelerating from 2.2% in the previous month. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests underlying inflationary pressures remain more persistent than policymakers had hoped.
Eurozone Investor Sentiment Turns Positive as ZEW Index Surges

Investor confidence in the Eurozone improved sharply in June, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rising to 9.5 from -9.1 in May, easily beating expectations for a reading of -7.2.
Eurozone Economy Shows Signs of Weakness as Trade Balance Turns Negative and Factory Output Misses Expectations

Fresh economic data pointed to a softer start to the second quarter for the Eurozone, with both trade and industrial production figures coming in below market expectations.

The Eurozone recorded a trade deficit of €1.0 billion in April, a sharp deterioration from the €4.9 billion surplus reported in the previous month and well below economists' expectations for a €7.8 billion surplus. The unexpected swing into deficit suggests external demand conditions weakened during the month and highlights ongoing challenges facing the region's export-oriented economies.

Industrial production also disappointed. Factory output rose just 0.1% month-over-month in April, missing forecasts for a 0.2% increase and slowing from the previous month's 0.4% gain.

The weaker-than-expected figures reinforce concerns that the region's recovery remains fragile. Europe's industrial sector continues to face headwinds from soft global demand, trade uncertainty, and uneven economic growth among key trading partners.
The final May PMI data paint a mixed picture for the Eurozone economy.

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 47.7, comfortably above the 46.4 forecast and slightly higher than April's 47.6. While this is an improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating that the services sector is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.

More importantly, the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, came in at 48.5. This was stronger than the 47.5 consensus estimate but slightly below April's 48.8.
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