Germany

The final May PMI data paint a mixed picture for the Eurozone economy.

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI rose to 47.7, comfortably above the 46.4 forecast and slightly higher than April's 47.6. While this is an improvement, the index remains below the 50 threshold, indicating that the services sector is still contracting, albeit at a slower pace.

More importantly, the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services activity, came in at 48.5. This was stronger than the 47.5 consensus estimate but slightly below April's 48.8.
Germany's HCOB Services PMI rose to 48.1 in May, beating expectations of 47.8 and improving from 46.9 in April.
Eurozone inflation accelerated in May, reinforcing concerns that underlying price pressures remain persistent despite the European Central Bank’s easing efforts. Headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year, matching expectations and increasing from 3.0% in April, while monthly inflation slowed sharply to 0.1% from 1.0% previously.

More importantly for policymakers, core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—climbed to 2.5% year-over-year, exceeding expectations of 2.4% and accelerating from 2.2% in April. The stronger-than-expected core reading suggests that underlying inflationary pressures remain more stubborn than anticipated.
Eurozone manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory in May, but the pace of growth slowed more than expected. The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.6 from 52.2 in April, although it still came in slightly above economists' expectations of 51.4.
Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly returned to expansion in May, offering a positive signal for Europe's largest economy after a prolonged period of industrial weakness. The HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI was 50.1, slightly above expectations of 49.9 and crossing the key 50 threshold, although it eased from April's 51.4 reading.
German retail sales declined in April, highlighting continued caution among consumers despite easing inflation and improving economic sentiment. Retail sales fell 0.3% month-over-month, matching the previous month's decline but outperforming expectations for a steeper 0.4% drop.
Germany’s preliminary CPI unexpectedly fell 0.2% month over month in May, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and reversing the previous month’s 0.6% rise.
German business sentiment improved modestly in May, with the Ifo Business Climate Index rising to 84.9 from 84.5 and beating expectations of 84.2. Meanwhile, German Business Expectations increased to 83.8 from 83.5, also coming in above forecasts of 83.5.
German consumer sentiment improved notably heading into June, with the GfK Consumer Climate index rising to -29.8 from -33.1, beating expectations of -33.7.
Germany’s economy showed modest improvement in the first quarter, with GDP rising 0.3% quarter-over-quarter, matching expectations and accelerating from the previous 0.2% growth rate. On an annual basis, the economy expanded 0.4%, slightly above forecasts of 0.3% and unchanged from the prior reading.
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