S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 45.4 Forecast 44.0

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.6% Forecast -0.1%
Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.4% Forecast 4.1%

Core Retail Sales (Y) (Mar) 3.3% Forecast 2.2%
Core Retail Sales (M) (Mar) 0.5% Forecast -0.4%
Retail Sales (Y) (Mar) 2.6% Forecast 1.8%
Retail Sales (M) (Mar) 0.4% Forecast -0.3%

S&P Global Composite PMI (Apr) 48.2 Forecast 50.4
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 44.0 Forecast 44.0
S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 48.9 Forecast 51.5

CPI (M) (Mar) 0.3% Forecast 0.4%
CPI (Y) (Mar) 2.6% Forecast 2.7%

Employment Change 3M/3M (M) (Feb) 206K Previous 144K
Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.4% Forecast 4.4%

GDP (M) (Feb) 0.5% Forecast 0.1%

Industrial Production (M) (Feb) 1.5% Forecast 0.1%
Manufacturing Production (M) (Feb) 2.2% Forecast 0.2%


Trade Balance (Feb) -20.81B Forecast -17.30B
Trade Balance Non-EU (Feb) -8.58B Previous -7.37B

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) -0.5% Forecast 0.2%
Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 2.8% Previous 2.8%

S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) 46.4 Forecast 46.3

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 44.9 Forecast 44.6

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 1.0% Forecast -0.5%
GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.5% Forecast 1.4%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1% Forecast 0.1%
Trade Balance (Jan) -17.85B Forecast -16.80B

CPI (YoY) 2.8% Forecast 3.0%
CPI (MoM) 0.4% Forecast 0.5%

S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 Forecast 50.3
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 44.6 Forecast 47.3
S&P Global Services PMI 53.2 Forecast 51.2

BoE Interest Rate 4.50% Forecast 4.50%

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jan) 5.8% Forecast 5.8%
Employment Change (MoM) (Jan) 144K Forecast 95K
Unemployment Rate (Jan) 4.4% Forecast 4.4%

Halifax House Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 2.9% Forecast 3.1%
Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Feb) -0.1% Forecast 0.5%
Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Feb) 7.33% Previous 7.46%

S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5 Previous 50.6
S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.0 Previous 50.8

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.9 Forecast 46.4

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% Forecast 0.2%
Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.9% Forecast 3.4%

S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5 Forecast 50.5
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.4 Forecast 48.5
S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.1 Forecast 50.8

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 2.1% Forecast 0.9%
Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.2% Forecast 0.5%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.7% Forecast 0.4%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.0% Forecast 0.6%

CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.0% Forecast 2.8%
CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.1% Forecast -0.3%
PPI Input (MoM) (Jan) 0.8% Forecast 0.7%

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Dec) 6.0% Forecast 5.9%
Claimant Count Change (Jan) 22.0K Forecast 10.0K
Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Dec) 107K Previous 35K
Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.4% Forecast 4.5%
Labour Productivity (Q3) -2.4% Forecast -0.8%

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jan) 4.1% Forecast 4.3%
Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% Forecast 0.3%

S&P Global Composite PMI (Jan) 50.9 Forecast 50.0
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 48.2 Forecast 46.9
S&P Global Services PMI (Jan) 51.2 Forecast 50.8

Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) 5.6% Forecast 5.6%
Claimant Count Change (Dec) 0.7K Forecast 10.3K
Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Nov) 35K Forecast 35K
Unemployment Rate (Nov) 4.4% Forecast 4.3%

Goldman Sachs Research anticipates a 9% total return for the STOXX 600 index in 2025, reflecting modest growth in European stocks amid economic headwinds such as weak growth, manufacturing struggles, and fiscal uncertainties in countries like France, Italy, and the UK. Lower interest rates, expected to drop to 1.75% by mid-2025, could benefit indebted sectors like telecoms and real estate, as well as consumer-facing industries like retail and travel.

The team sees potential opportunities for small- and mid-sized companies due to their sensitivity to lower rates and expected M&A activity, but they remain cautious about cyclical vulnerabilities tied to weak economic growth. Exchange rate fluctuations, such as a weaker euro, could provide competitiveness for European companies but may deter foreign investment.

Growth for European companies relies significantly on markets outside the region, particularly the US and China. While US equity performance has been strong, Goldman Sachs suggests Europe might gain traction if US valuations falter or major economic shifts occur. Lower inflation and reduced interest rates could also improve European stock valuations, offering an upside not fully reflected in current forecasts. goldmansachs.com

CFTC GBP speculative net positions 0.4K Previous: 14.5K

GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): -0.6% Forecast: 0.1%
GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): 2.9% Forecast: 3.6%
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec): -0.3% Forecast: 0.4%
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (Dec): 3.6% Forecast: 4.2%

GBP GDP (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% Forecast:0.2%
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.4% Forecast: 0.1%
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov): -0.3% Forecast: -0.2%
GBP Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Nov): 0.0% Forecast: 0.0%
GBP Trade Balance (Nov): -19.31B Forecast: -18.00B
GBP Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov): -7.72B Previous: -7.65B

GBP CPI (MoM) (Dec) Actual: 0.3% Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.1%
GBP CPI (YoY) (Dec) Actual: 2.5% Forecast: 2.6% Previous: 2.6%
GBP CPIH (YoY) Actual: 3.5% Previous: 3.5%
GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Dec) Actual : 0.1% Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.0%