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#US

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.1% Forecast 2.4%
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.7 Forecast 48.0
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) 69.8 Forecast 72.9
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.7 Previous 49.0
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) 69.8 Forecast 72.9
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.2 Forecast 50.7
Continuing Jobless Claims 1,916K Forecast 1,860K

Initial Jobless Claims 241K Forecast 224K
Crude Oil Inventories -2.696M Forecast 0.390M
Chicago PMI (Apr) 44.6 Forecast 45.9
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 2.6% Forecast 2.6%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.0% Forecast 0.1%
GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -0.3% Forecast 0.2% Previous 2.4%

interesting data indeed
Goods Trade Balance (Mar) -161.99B Forecast -142.80B
Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Mar) 0.4% Previous 0.1%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.7% Forecast -2.5%
S&P/CS HPI Composite (YoY) (Feb) 4.5% Forecast 4.6%
S&P/CS HPI Composite (M) (Feb) 0.7% Previous 0.1%
CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) 86.0 Forecast 87.7
JOLTS Job Openings (Mar) 7.192M Forecast 7.490M


Fitch Ratings raised its 2025 default rate forecasts for U.S. and European leveraged finance due to a weaker macroeconomic outlook caused by an escalating trade war.

U.S. high-yield bond defaults are now expected to reach 4.0% to 4.5% and leveraged loan defaults 5.5% to 6.0%. In Europe, Fitch forecasts 5.0% to 5.5% for high-yield bonds and 2.5% to 3.0% for leveraged loans.

The U.S. economy is now projected to grow just 1.2% in 2025, while Europe is expected to grow 0.6%. Only one 25-basis point Fed rate cut is forecast for late 2025. Corporate margins, cash flows, and liquidity conditions are deteriorating, while access to funding for highly leveraged and cyclical issuers is tightening.

In the U.S., sectors like autos, retailers, technology hardware, and telecommunications are seen as most vulnerable. Large issuers expected to contribute to defaults include Altice France, Radiate Holdco, Tropicana, Sonrava Health, DISH, At Home Group, and Sunnova Energy. Defaults could be lower if CSC Holdings avoids default this year.

In Europe, sectors impacted by tariffs include automotive, manufacturing, chemicals, and technology hardware. Major European issuers already facing distress include Altice France, Thames Water, Garfunkelux, Ardagh Group, and Kloeckner Pentaplast.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 483 Previous 481
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 587 Previous 585
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 6.5% Forecast 6.7%
Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr) 47.3 Forecast 47.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 52.2 Forecast 50.8
Fitch Ratings warns that U.S. credit conditions are likely to deteriorate in the second quarter of 2025 due to rising tariffs, global trade tensions, and increasing policy unpredictability. The new round of tariffs introduced by the U.S. and the retaliatory measures from trade partners have surpassed Fitch’s earlier expectations, leading to downgraded GDP growth forecasts — now reduced by 0.5 percentage points for the U.S. and 0.4 percentage points globally. U.S. economic growth is now expected to slow to just 0.4% year-over-year by Q4 2025.

Higher import prices, worsened household inflation expectations, and reduced liquidity and funding availability — despite worsening growth prospects — are expected to strain the credit environment further. Fitch projects that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates before Q4 2025.

Key sectors like autos, tech hardware, and homebuilding are most vulnerable to tariffs, while gaming and tech companies face rising risks from foreign retaliation. Meanwhile, potential federal cuts to Medicaid could significantly harm credit in the healthcare sector.

Despite the challenges, most investment-grade companies maintain solid balance sheets and have extended their debt maturities due to recent favorable market conditions. However, Fitch cautions that the overall risks to corporate revenue and margins are increasingly skewed to the downside.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/us-credit-trends-to-deteriorate-amid-tariffs-policy-volatility-17-04-2025
Fitch Ratings has launched the U.S. Effective Tariff Rate Monitor, an interactive tool designed to track and model the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR), which currently stands at 22.8%. This marks a sharp increase from 2.3% earlier in 2025, prior to newly implemented tariff measures by the Trump administration.

The tool calculates the ETR by accounting for exclusions and carveouts such as those on oil, gas, copper, and pharmaceuticals. It also allows users to simulate scenarios by modifying tariff rates and import levels. For example, applying an additional 25% tariff on pharmaceuticals and electronics would raise the ETR to 27.2%.

Country-specific ETRs show the highest rate for China at 103.6%, with Japan, Mexico, Canada, and Germany each above 10.5%. If current trade levels persist, the U.S. is expected to collect about $748 billion in duties in 2025, equivalent to approximately 2.5% of GDP, although demand reductions due to higher prices may lower this amount.

Fitch warns that increased protectionism has impacted global economic prospects, prompting a downgrade of its 2025 world GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.9% in 2024.

Access the tool and more information: [fitchratings.com](https://www.fitchratings.com)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.5% Forecast -2.2%
Existing Home Sales (M) (Mar) -5.9% Forecast -3.0%
Existing Home Sales (Mar) 4.02M Forecast 4.14M
Continuing Jobless Claims 1,841K Forecast 1,880K
Core Durable Goods Orders (M) (Mar) 0.0% Forecast 0.3%
Durable Goods Orders (M) (Mar) 9.2% Forecast 2.1%
Initial Jobless Claims 222K Forecast 222K
Crude Oil Inventories 0.244M Forecast 1.600M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.086M Previous -0.654M
Building Permits (Mar) 1.467M Forecast 1.482M
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.7 Forecast 49.0
S&P Global Composite PMI (Apr) 51.2 Previous 53.5
New Home Sales (Mar) 724K Forecast 684K
Richmond Manufacturing Index (Apr) -13 Forecast -6
US Leading Index (MoM) (Mar) -0.7% Forecast -0.5%
6-Month Bill Auction 4.050% Previous 4.060%




U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 481 Prev 480
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585 Prev 583
Building Permits (Mar) 1.482M Forecast 1.450M
Housing Starts (Mar) 1.324M Forecast 1.420M

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,885K Forecast 1,870K
Initial Jobless Claims 215K Forecast 225K

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) -26.4 Forecast 2.2

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.2% Forecast -2.8%
20-Year Bond Auction 4.810% Previous 4.632%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.2% Forecast -2.8%
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Feb) 112.0B Forecast 35.2B
US Crude Oil Inventories 0.515M Forecast 0.400M
Retail Sales (M) (Mar) 1.4% Forecast 1.3%
Industrial Production (M) (Mar) -0.3% Forecast -0.2%


Export Price Index (M) (Mar) 0.0% Forecast 0.1%
Import Price Index (M) (Mar) -0.1% Forecast 0.1%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr) -8.10 Forecast -12.80
NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Mar) 3.6% Previous 3.1%

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 480 Previous 489
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 583 Previous 590

Core PPI (M) (Mar) -0.1% Forecast 0.3%
PPI (M) (Mar) -0.4% Forecast 0.2%

Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 6.7% Previous 5.0%
Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr) 47.2 Forecast 50.8
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 50.8 Forecast 54.0



PODCAST - GOLDMAN SACHS
Continuing Jobless Claims 1,850K Forecast 1,880K
Core CPI (M) (Mar) 0.1% Forecast 0.3%
Core CPI (Y) (Mar) 2.8% Forecast 3.0%
CPI (M) (Mar) -0.1% Forecast 0.1%
CPI (Y) (Mar) 2.4% Forecast 2.5%
Initial Jobless Claims 223K Forecast 223K







Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Mar) 3.8% Forecast 3.9%
Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 228K Forecast 137K
Participation Rate (Mar) 62.5% Previous 62.4%
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar) 209K Forecast 127K
Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.2% Forecast 4.1%



Crude Oil Inventories 6.165M Forecast -0.200M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 2.373M Previous -0.755M
Nonfarm Employment Change 155K Forecast 118K
Factory Orders (MoM) 0.6% Forecast 0.5%
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 50.2 Forecast 49.8

ISM Manufacturing Prices 69.4 Forecast 64.6

JOLTS Job Openings 7.568M Forecast 7.690M

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -3.7% Forecast -2.8%



Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.8% Forecast -1.8%
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 5.0% Forecast 4.9%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 2.8% Forecast 2.7% Previous 2.7%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.4% Forecast 0.3% Previous 0.3%


Continuing Jobless Claims 1,856K Forecast 1,890K
Initial Jobless Claims 224K Forecast 225K

Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.60% Forecast 2.70%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.4% Forecast 2.3%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% Forecast 2.4%

Goods Trade Balance (Feb) -147.91B Forecast -134.60B

Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb) 0.1% Previous 0.5%
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 2.0% Forecast 0.9%
5-Year Note Auction 4.100% Previous 4.123%
Crude Oil Inventories -3.341M Forecast 1.500M
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.7% Forecast 0.2%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.9% Forecast -1.1%
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -1.8% Forecast -1.8%

Building Permits 1.459M Forecast 1.456M
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) 0.1% Forecast 0.2%
S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 4.7% Forecast 4.6%
CB Consumer Confidence 92.9 Forecast 94.2
New Home Sales (MoM) 1.8% Previous -6.9%
New Home Sales - Feb 676K Forecast 682K
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 49.8 Forecast 51.9
S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 53.5 Previous 51.6
S&P Global Services PMI (Mar) 54.3 Forecast 51.2

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,892K Forecast 1,890K
Current Account (Q4) -303.9B Forecast -330.0B
Initial Jobless Claims 223K Forecast 224K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) 12.5 Forecast 8.8
Philly Fed Employment (Mar) 19.7 Previous 5.3
Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 4.2% Previous -4.7%
Existing Home Sales (Feb) 4.26M Forecast 3.95M
US Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% Forecast -0.2%
Industrial Production (M) 0.7% Forecast 0.2%
Industrial Production (Y) 1.44% Previous 1.92%
Building Permits (Feb) 1.456M Forecast 1.450M
Export Price Index (MoM) 0.1% Forecast -0.2%
Housing Starts (MoM) 11.2% Previous -11.5%
Housing Starts 1.501M Forecast 1.380M
Import Price Index (MoM) 0.4% Forecast -0.1%
American Express has released delinquency and write-off statistics for its U.S. Consumer and U.S. Small Business Card Member lending portfolios for February, January, and December 2024. As of February 28, 2025, total U.S. Consumer Card Member loans stood at $87.8 billion, with a delinquency rate of 1.4% and a net write-off rate of 2.5%. U.S. Small Business Card Member loans totaled $30.2 billion, with a delinquency rate of 1.6% and a net write-off rate of 2.6%.

The report also provides credit performance data for the American Express Credit Account Master Trust. As of February 28, 2025, the trust’s total principal balance was $24.7 billion, with an annualized default rate of 1.8%, up from 1.2% in December 2024.

The company noted that these figures exclude loans related to its Lowe’s small business co-brand portfolio, which were reclassified as held for sale in December 2024. American Express highlighted that reported credit performance may vary due to seasonality, timing of holidays, and differences in loan characteristics between securitized and non-securitized portfolios.
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Mar) -20.00 Forecast -1.90
Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% Forecast 0.6%
Business Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) 0.5% Forecast 0.4%

Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K Forecast 1,900K
Core PPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.1% Forecast 0.3%
Initial Jobless Claims 220K Forecast 226K
PPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.0% Forecast 0.3%

Crude Oil Inventories 1.448M 2.100M 3.614M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.228M 1.124M
Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% Forecast 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.1% Forecast 3.2%
CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% Forecast 0.3%
CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.8% Forecast 2.9%

A PODCAST FROM DEUTSCHE BANK
JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) 7.740M Forecast 7.650M

NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.1% Prev 3.0%

UBS Research analyzed the potential impact of President Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs, which would impose tariffs on imported goods at the same rate that other countries apply to U.S. exports. While the concept of reciprocity exists in trade agreements, it has not typically been applied at the individual product level.

The study examined tariffs across 12,500 product lines and 200 trade partners, finding that reciprocal tariffs would increase the U.S. weighted average import tariff by 1.65 percentage points, with developed markets seeing a smaller impact of 0.8 percentage points and emerging markets a larger one of 2.2 percentage points. The countries most affected would be India, Argentina, Indonesia, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Turkey, with Vietnam and Thailand facing the highest GDP risk due to their trade exposure to the U.S.

From a global perspective, reciprocal tariffs would be significantly less damaging than a blanket global tariff. A hypothetical 10 percent blanket U.S. tariff could lower global GDP by one percentage point, while reciprocal tariffs would have only about one-fifth of that impact.

The analysis found no clear evidence that the U.S. is uniquely disadvantaged by current tariff structures. While U.S. agricultural exports face higher foreign tariffs, about five percentage points higher than U.S. import tariffs on agricultural goods, the U.S. also protects textiles disproportionately, with a four percentage point advantage in its own favor.

UBS estimates that reciprocal tariffs would generate between 18 and 32 billion dollars in annual revenue, equivalent to 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP. Given the modest revenue impact and complex cost-benefit considerations, the study suggests that the U.S. might ultimately pursue a different combination of tariffs, as Trump has hinted at further tariff actions beyond reciprocity.

The findings indicate that reciprocal tariffs would primarily affect emerging markets, raise limited revenue, and might not be the most effective trade strategy.
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 486 Previous 486
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 592 Previous 593
Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 151K Forecast 159K
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% Forecast 0.3%
Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.1% Forecast 4.0%
Continuing Jobless Claims 1,897K Forecast 1,880K
Exports (Jan) 269.80B Previous 266.50B
Imports (Jan) 401.20B Previous 364.90B
Initial Jobless Claims 221K Forecast 234K
Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.5% Forecast 1.2%
Trade Balance (Jan) -131.40B Forecastt -128.30B
Crude Oil Inventories 3.614M Forecast 0.600M
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.124M Previous 1.282M
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) 77K Forecast 1 42K
S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 51.6 Forecast 50.4
S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.0 Forecast 49.7
Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) 1.7% Forecast 1.7%
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 53.9 Previous 52.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 53.5 Forecast 52.5
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 62.6 Forecast 60.0
S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that corporate clean energy purchases in the US have surged to nearly 120 GW, driven by the growing energy demands of AI datacenters. Over the past year, corporations contracted an additional 48 GW of clean energy capacity, with the technology and web services sector accounting for 92% of the new additions.

Nuclear energy played a significant role, making up 43% of the 47.6-GW year-over-year increase. Corporate buyers also secured nearly 14 GW of solar capacity, compared to just 2.2 GW of wind capacity. Texas remained the leading state in corporate-tied clean energy capacity, while Missouri, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota saw the largest annual increases.

Tech companies led the shift toward nuclear power, aiming to support their clean energy commitments. Microsoft and Brookfield Renewable announced a historic 10.5-GW renewable deal in May 2024, while Switch partnered with nuclear startup Oklo for 12 GW of nuclear energy. In total, over 20 GW of nuclear deals were announced in 2024, though most of this capacity is expected to come online after 2030.

Despite the rise in nuclear investments, solar remains the preferred choice for corporate clean energy procurement, accounting for 49.1% of tracked capacity, with wind representing 23.9%.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.8% Forecast -1.5%