#US

Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,956K Forecast: 1,910K

Core PPI (MoM) (May): 0.1% Forecast: 0.3%

Initial Jobless Claims: 248K Forecast: 242K

PPI (MoM) (May): 0.1% Forecast: 0.2%
Fitch Ratings has revised its 2025 outlook for North American non-financial corporates to **“deteriorating”** from “neutral,” citing a weaker U.S. macroeconomic outlook marked by slower GDP growth, inflation concerns, and policy uncertainty. Key consumer-facing sectors such as retail, restaurants, autos, and healthcare have also been downgraded due to weaker spending power, higher tariffs, and potential Medicaid funding cuts.

While no technical recession is forecasted, Fitch now expects higher default rates in leveraged finance markets and limited flexibility for low-rated issuers amid elevated capital costs. Sectors with lower consumer exposure—such as software, business services, and defense—retain a neutral or improving outlook.

Latest Market Updates, Economic Insights, & Policy Changes

Find breaking updates on the economy, markets, policy changes and geopolitical events along with insights from Merrill's Chief Investment Office (CIO).
US Federal Budget Balance (May): -316.0B Forecast:-314.3B
US Crude Oil Inventories: -3.644M Forecast: -2.400M

US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -0.403M Previous: 0.576M
Core CPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% Forecast 0.3%

Core CPI (YoY) (May) 2.8% Forecast 2.9%

CPI (MoM) (May) 0.1% Foecast 0.2%

CPI (YoY) (May) 2.4% Forecast 2.5%

More Questions than Answers - MMM v6-23

NFIB Business optimism index: 98.8 Forecast: 96
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 3.8% Forecast: 3.8%

NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (May):3.2% Prev: 3.6%
US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 442 Previous: 451

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