Fitch Ratings has revised its 2025 outlook for North American non-financial corporates to **“deteriorating”** from “neutral,” citing a weaker U.S. macroeconomic outlook marked by slower GDP growth, inflation concerns, and policy uncertainty. Key consumer-facing sectors such as retail, restaurants, autos, and healthcare have also been downgraded due to weaker spending power, higher tariffs, and potential Medicaid funding cuts.

While no technical recession is forecasted, Fitch now expects higher default rates in leveraged finance markets and limited flexibility for low-rated issuers amid elevated capital costs. Sectors with lower consumer exposure—such as software, business services, and defense—retain a neutral or improving outlook.