Chinese Industrial profit YTD (Mar) 0.8% Previous -0.3%

Fitch Ratings has launched the U.S. Effective Tariff Rate Monitor, an interactive tool designed to track and model the U.S. effective tariff rate (ETR), which currently stands at 22.8%. This marks a sharp increase from 2.3% earlier in 2025, prior to newly implemented tariff measures by the Trump administration.

The tool calculates the ETR by accounting for exclusions and carveouts such as those on oil, gas, copper, and pharmaceuticals. It also allows users to simulate scenarios by modifying tariff rates and import levels. For example, applying an additional 25% tariff on pharmaceuticals and electronics would raise the ETR to 27.2%.

Country-specific ETRs show the highest rate for China at 103.6%, with Japan, Mexico, Canada, and Germany each above 10.5%. If current trade levels persist, the U.S. is expected to collect about $748 billion in duties in 2025, equivalent to approximately 2.5% of GDP, although demand reductions due to higher prices may lower this amount.

Fitch warns that increased protectionism has impacted global economic prospects, prompting a downgrade of its 2025 world GDP growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.9% in 2024.

Access the tool and more information: [fitchratings.com](https://www.fitchratings.com)

PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.10% Forecast 3.10%

Exports (Mar) 13.50M Previous -1.90M
Imports (Mar) -3.50M Previous 2.50M
Trade Balance (Mar) 736.72B Forecast 537.00B

Exports (Y) (Mar) 12.4% Forecast 4.4%
Imports (Y) (Mar) -4.3% Forecast -2.0%
Trade Balance (USD) (Mar) 102.64B Forecast 74.30B

Outstanding Loan Growth (Y) (Mar) 7.4% Previous 7.3%

New Loans (Mar) 3,640.0B Previous 1,010.0B

Chinese Composite PMI (Feb) 51.1 Previous 50.1
Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.2 Forecast 50.0
Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.4 Forecast 50.3

GDP (YoY) (Q4): 5.4% Forecast: 5.0%

China - US relations in Trump era