Deutsche Bank's recent analysis highlights the growing challenges faced by the European automotive industry, particularly in meeting stringent CO2 emission reduction targets set by the EU. From 2025, new passenger car fleets in the EU will need to meet stricter emission limits, reducing the fleet-wide average to 93.6 g/km, compared to the current 115.1 g/km. Manufacturers exceeding these targets face penalties of EUR 95 per gram per vehicle. However, weak demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) in critical markets places the industry at risk of significant fines, potentially exceeding EUR 10 billion if adoption rates do not improve.

The report underscores that EV market penetration in the EU remains below the required levels, with only 20.2% of new car registrations from January to October 2024 being electric (13.2% BEVs). To avoid penalties entirely, manufacturers need to achieve a BEV market share of 24% and a PHEV share of 10%. Challenges such as high EV prices, limited range, and insufficient public charging infrastructure continue to hinder adoption. Meanwhile, geopolitical factors, including increasing competition from Chinese EV manufacturers and potential U.S. tariffs on EU car imports, add further complexity. Despite calls for regulatory adjustments to ease the transition, the European automotive sector faces considerable economic and regulatory pressures as it navigates this critical period. (Source: Deutsche Bank)